[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Dec 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean METEO-FRANCE Gale-force Wind Warning: A
1012 mb low pressure center is in Portugal. The METEO-FRANCE
forecast consists of gale-force winds in the NW part of the IRVING
marine area, which covers the waters that are from 30N to 35N
between 22W and 35W. The outlook period, which covers the next 24
hours that are after the initial 36-hour long forecast period,
consists of: the persistence of cyclonic near gale or gale-force
winds from 30N northward. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecast, that is issued by METEO-FRANCE, at the website:
gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Liberia near 06N11W to
05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 03N30W to 01N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between
15W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends along the Straits of
Florida to 23N85W with a trailing surface trough continuing to
23N90W. Surface ridging has built in the wake of the front and is
supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds in the SE gulf
and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere along with seas to 3
ft. A cold front has entered the NW gulf and extends from SW
Louisiana to the southern tip of Texas. Fresh to strong NE winds
follow the front along with seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, a dissipating stationary front over the Straits
of Florida will wash out in the next several hours. Weak low
pressure will form over the west-central Gulf later tonight ahead
of a reinforcing cold front moving into the far NW Gulf. The low
will move rapidly across the southern Gulf to the east of the Gulf
along the stalled front through early Sun, while the reinforcing
front moves eastward across the northern Gulf. The reinforcing
front will sweep through the southeast Gulf by early Mon. Looking
ahead, the western portion of the front will shift northward
across the western Gulf late Mon and Tue while weak low pressure
moves into the northwest Gulf. The low pressure will shift
eastward across the northern Gulf through mid week, with a
trailing cold front moving across the western and central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean extends over the northern
Caribbean. The pressure gradient from this high pressure and the
low pressure in Colombia is giving way to strong winds north of
Colombia in addition to the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are up to 9 ft
in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh winds are noted across most
of the central Caribbean with seas 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail over the eastern basin with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle
winds are noted in the northwest Caribbean with slight seas.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will
maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and
SW Caribbean Sea through at least Wed night, reaching near-gale
off Colombia tonight and Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh
winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate
winds in the W Caribbean. Large, long-period N to NE swell will
continue to move into the tropical Atlantic and through the
Anegada Passage into the northeast Caribbean for the next several
days. A cold front will dissipate as it pushes into the Yucatan
Channel Sun night into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force winds that are in the NW part of the METEO-FRANCE
marine section IRVING.

A cold front extends from 150 nm west of Bermuda to across the
northern Bahamas into the Straits of Florida. High pressure
anchored by a 1019 mb high near 25N62W cover the remainder SW N
Atlantic providing light to gentle variable winds. A cold front
extends across the central subtropical waters along with rough
seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from Bermuda
to 26N76W while it stalls to the Straits of Florida overnight,
then completely stall from 31N55W to the Straits of Florida by
early Sun before dissipating by late Sun. A stronger cold front
will move off the northeast Florida coast Sat night, reach from
Bermuda to northwest Cuba by Sun night, and from 31N55W to central
Cuba Mon night before starting to weaken and stall from 25N55W to
the southeast Bahamas through Tue. Meanwhile, large long-period N
to NE swell will continue to affect the NE half of the area for
the next several days. Looking ahead, low pressure may move from
the eastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida Tue night, then continue
to east of the northern Bahamas through late Wed.

$$
Ramos
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