[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Dec 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean METEO-FRANCE Gale-force Wind Warning: A
1005 mb low pressure center is in Portugal. The METEO-FRANCE
forecast consists of gale-force winds in the NW part of the
IRVING marine area, which covers the waters that are from 30N to
35N between 22W and 35W. The outlook period, which covers the
next 24 hours that are after the initial 36-hour long forecast
period, consists of: the persistence of cyclonic near gale or
gale-force winds from 30N northward. Please, read the latest
High Seas Forecast, that is issued by METEO-FRANCE, at the
website: gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W, to
03N22W, and 03N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 09N southward between 22W and 57W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the southernmost parts of Florida,
to 24N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough continues from
24N85W, to a SW Gulf of Mexico 1012 mb low pressure center that
is near 20N94W. The trough continues from the 1012 mb low
pressure center, northwestward, to 28N101W in Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 28N southward.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is in NE Louisiana. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 25N
northward. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds, and sea heights
that range from 3 feet to 6 feet, are to the north and west of
the front. An exception has been E to SE winds in the west
central and NW Gulf closer to the high pressure center. Light to
gentle variable winds, and sea
heights that reach 3 feet, are in the far SE Gulf to the south
of the front, except for moderate southerly winds that are
through the Yucatan Channel.

A cold front reaching from near Flamingo, Florida to 24N85W will
stall over the Florida Straits today. Weak low pressure will
form over the west-central Gulf tonight ahead of a reinforcing
cold front moving into the far northwest Gulf. The low will move
rapidly to the east of the Gulf along the stalled front through
early Sun, while the reinforcing front moves eastward across the
northern Gulf. The reinforcing front will sweep through the
southeast Gulf by early Mon. Looking ahead, the western part of
the front will shift northward across the western Gulf late Mon
and Tue while weak low pressure moves into the northwest Gulf.
The low pressure will shift eastward across the northern
Gulf through late Tue, with a trailing cold front moving across
the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the northern half of
the area, and the eastern one-third of the area. Broad surface
cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner. A 1019 mb Atlantic
Ocean high pressure center is near 27N67W. The combination of
this high pressure center, and comparatively lower surface
pressures in Colombia, is helping to continue to support fresh
to strong trade winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to
10 feet, in the south central sections, including in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and sea
heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet,  are in the E and SW
Caribbean sections. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights
that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, cover the NW corner.

The monsoon trough is along 09N71W in NW Venezuela, beyond
07N81W in the southern sections of Panama, and into the tropical
NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 13N southward from 76W westward.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, during the period that
ended at 16/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, are: 0.42 in San Juan in Puerto Rico,
and 0.15 in Trinidad.

Surface ridging north of the region will maintain fresh to
strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean
Sea through at least Tue night with moderate to locally fresh
winds elsewhere. Large, long-period N to NE swell will continue
to move into the tropical Atlantic Ocean and through the Mona
Passage and the Anegada Passage, into the northeast Caribbean
Sea, for the
next several days. A cold front will dissipate as it pushes into
the Yucatan Channel Sun night into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force winds that are in the NW part of the METEO-FRANCE
marine section IRVING.

A cold front passes through 31N44W to 27N53W. The front is
stationary from 27N53W to 26N61W. This
frontal boundary is connected to a 979 mb low pressure center
that is about 675 nm to the north of the area along 44W.
Storm-force winds are to the north of the area. The sea heights
are ranging from 20 feet to 27 feet from the cold front
northward between 45W and 50W. The sea heights are ranging from
11 feet to 20 feet from 25N to the cold front between 45W and
52W. The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 16 feet from 26N
northward between 35W and 45W. The wind speeds have slowed down
to less than gale-force. The surface pressure gradient has been
weakening comparatively in the north
central subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Please, read the latest High
Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for more details. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 24N northward between 30W and 41W.

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N74W, to
the NW Bahamas, to the coast of Florida from 25N to 26N along
80W, and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the
south and southeast of the cold front from the Straits of
Florida northeastward. Fresh to strong SW winds, and sea heights
that have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet, have been to the
east of the cold front, from 29N northward between 71W and 79W.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 27N67W. Expect light to
gentle variable winds near the high pressure center, and gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere from 60W westward.

A broad subtropical ridge is in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are from 20N southward.
Gentle to moderate trade winds are from 20N northward away from
the area of the central Atlantic Ocean cold front. The sea
heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet in N to NE
swell. An exception is that the sea heights have been ranging
from 4 feet to 6 feet to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is 27N25W. The sea heights range
from 7 feet to 12 feet from 24N northward from 35W eastward.

A cold front extending from low pressure off New Jersey to the
northern Bahamas and South Florida will reach from Bermuda to
the Florida Straits tonight, then stall from 31N55W to the
Florida Straits by early Sun before dissipating by late Sun. A
stronger cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast
Sat night, reach from Bermuda to northwest Cuba by Sun night,
and from 31N55W to central Cuba Mon night before starting to
weaken and stall from 25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through
Tue. Meanwhile, large, long-period N to NE swell will continue
to affect much of the area for the next several days.

$$
mt/ec
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