[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Dec 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A large and powerful low pressure
system north of the area will bring strong to near gale force W
to NW winds and very large seas through tonight to the waters
east of 60W and north of 27N. Winds are forecast to reach gale
force this evening for the area N of 30N between 49W and 54W
with building seas to 23 ft. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic tropical waters  through
the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ
continues from 05715W to 02.5N30W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 08N southward between 21W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to
near Veracruz, Mexico. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms
is observed ahead of the front north of 24N between the frontal
boundary and the west coast of Florida. Gusts will likely exceed
35 kts in the strongest thunderstorms. Fresh to strong SW winds
are elsewhere in the northeast Gulf ahead of the front north of
25N. An area of fresh NW to N winds are observed across the
Veracruz offshore waters. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE winds
are across the remainder basin either side of the frontal
boundary. Seas behind the front are generally 5 to 8 ft, with up
to 9 ft locally in the northeastern Gulf. Ahead of the front,
seas range from 4 to 8 ft north of 23N and 2 to 4 ft south of
23N in the southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front extending from the Florida
panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico will reach from SW Florida to
the central Bay of Campeche while weakening. The line of strong
to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front will continue to race
eastward across the NE Gulf today. Fresh to strong NW to N winds
west of the front and fresh to strong S winds ahead of the front
in the NE Gulf will diminish later today. A new cold front will
form over the W Gulf on Sat morning. The pressure gradient
between the front and high pressure over the S United States is
likely to induce a large area of strong to near gale N to NE
winds over the N Gulf this weekend. The front should become
stationary late Sun, and then transition to a warm front while
it lifts northward to the NW Gulf by late Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mainly  strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean with
seas in the 5 to 8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas, with the exception of  6 to 7 ft
in the NE Caribbean passages due to NE swell from the Atlantic.
Only notable convection is found within 100 nm from the western
Panama coast associated with the Pacific monsoon trough that
extends into the basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will
maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central
and SW Caribbean Sea through Mon night, with moderate to locally
fresh winds elsewhere. Large, long-period N to NE swell will
continue to propagate through the Mona and Anegada Passages and
affect the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Fri. Another large
set of N swell is forecast to begin propagating through the
Tropical N Atlantic waters starting late on Fri and continue
through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on a Gale
Warning in the central Atlantic.

Fresh to strong S to SW winds are offshore northeast Florida to
roughly 75W this morning ahead of a strong cold front
approaching the southeast U.S. coast.Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are observed in this region north of 28N between
the northeast coast of Florida and 78W. Farther east, a cold
front extends from 31N57W to 26.5N64W, with a surface trough
ahead of it analyzed from 31N49W to 23N63W. A recent
scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong W to NW winds behind
the front affecting the waters N of 29N between 56W and 65W,
while fresh to strong SW winds are noted ahead of the front and
north of the surface trough, encompassing the area N of 27N
between 50W and 60W.  Seas are in the 8-11 ft range north of
20N, with seas of 12 to 14 ft near the strongest winds north of
29N between 51W and  63W. The remainder of the Atlantic
subtropical waters is dominated by surface ridging, along with
moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in N swell
stretching across the basin south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W,  large and powerful low pressure
system north of the area will bring strong to near gale force W
to NW winds and very large seas through tonight to the waters
east of 60W and north of 27N. The aforementioned front will move
off the coast this evening, reaching from near 31N62W to the
Florida Keys Sat morning, and merge with a reinforcing cold
front Sun afternoon. This next cold front will extend from
30N70W to Florida Keys Sun morning and move eastward to 31N60W
to the SE Bahamas Mon morning. Fresh to strong SE winds will
proceed the front north of 27N. Large to very large, long-
period N to NE swell will continue to affect much of the area
for the next several days.

$$
Nepaul
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