[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Dec 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A large and powerful low pressure
system centered north of the area will bring strong to near
gale force W winds along with very large seas through late today
to the waters east of 60W and north of 27N. Winds are forecast to
reach gale force this evening for the area N of 30N between 47W
and 54W with building seas to 23 ft. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N26W to
01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between
26W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Pensacola, Florida to the offshore
waters south of Tampico, Mexico. A line of strong to severe
thunderstorms is ahead of the front and will continue to race E
across the NE Gulf today. Gusts will likely exceed 35 kts in the
strongest thunderstorms. Fresh to strong SW winds are elsewhere in
the NE gulf ahead of the front. Fresh to strong winds are also
across the Veracruz offshore waters. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
winds are across the remainder basin either side of the frontal
boundary.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Sarasota,
FL to the central Bay of Campeche tonight before slowing down and
beginning to weaken. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds west
of the front will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds today.
Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front in the NE basin
will diminish later this morning as the front approaches the
Florida Big Bend. The front will stall Fri night from the Straits
of Florida to the south-central Gulf of Mexico before weakening
further through Sat as a surface trough forms over the SW Gulf.
The gradient between the surface trough and high pressure over the
southern U.S. is likely to induce a large area of fresh to strong
N to NE winds over the central Gulf this weekend. The trough will
transition to a warm front on Sun and lift northward to the NW
Gulf by late Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean with
seas in the 5-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas except up to 6-7 ft in the NE
Caribbean passages due to NE swell from the Atlantic.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will maintain
fresh to strong NE to E winds across portions of the central and
SW Caribbean Sea through Mon night, with moderate to locally fresh
winds elsewhere. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to
propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and affect the
Tropical N Atlantic waters through Fri. Another large set of N
swell is forecast to begin propagating through the Tropical N
Atlantic waters starting late on Fri and continue through Mon
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on a Gale
Warning in the central Atlantic.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are offshore NE Florida ahead of
a strong cold front approaching the SE U.S. coast. Scattered
showers and tstms are also in this region. Farther east, a cold
front extends from 31N57W to 29N64W with a dissipating stationary
front ahead of it. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are behind the
front affecting the waters N of 29N between 52W and 64W where
seas are in the 8-11 ft range. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the
weakening stationary front enconpassing the area N of 25N between
40W and 53W. Surface ridging dominates the remainder Atlantic
subtropical waters along with N swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, large long-period N to NE swell
will continue to affect much of the area for the next couple of
days. A large and powerful low pressure system north of the area
will bring strong to near gale force W winds and very large seas
through tonight to the waters E of 60W and north of 27N. A cold
front will move off the coast this afternoon, reach from near
31N65W to the Florida Keys early Sat and merge with a reinforcing
cold front on Sun. The merged front is forecast to reach from near
29N55W to 26N66W and then stall to the central Bahamas by late
Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds will shift eastward across
the northern and central waters through Sat and exit the area late
Sat. Fresh northwest to north winds will follow in behind the
merged front.

$$
Ramos
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