[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A large low pressure system is
forecast to be centered north of the area near 38N48W Thu night
with a cold front extending S from the low. Gale force W winds
south of the low are forecast to extend southward to 30N between
45W-55W Thu night, moving E to between 35W-50W on Fri. The gale
will combine with very large NW swell to produce seas of 18 to 24
ft Thu night through Sat north of 27N between 35W-58W. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
10N15W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 03.5N26W to
02N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of the ITCZ
from 03.5 to 06.5N between 26W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong S winds prevail across most of the Gulf, except
for moderate winds in the far SE Gulf near the Straits of
Florida. Seas are 5 to 7 ft, except up to 8 ft in the west-central
Gulf. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail over the SE Gulf.

A cold front is located just inland over Texas. A line of strong
thunderstorms is mostly occurring inland from central Louisiana to
the coast of SW Louisiana. Additional scattered tstorms are
located over east Texas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S return flow will prevail over
the central and western Gulf today ahead of a cold front, which
is forecast to move off the coast of Texas this morning. The front
will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche
early Thu and from Sarasota, FL to the central Bay of Campeche Thu
night before slowing down and beginning to weaken. A line of
strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front
today over the NW Gulf, and tonight into Thu across the north-
central and NE Gulf of Mexico. Strong to locally near-gale force
NNW to N winds are expected immediately behind the front today in
the western Gulf, diminishing to moderate to fresh northerly winds
behind the front tonight into Thu for the central and eastern
Gulf. The front should become stationary Fri night from the
Florida Keys to the south-central Gulf before weakening further.
The front should remain in about the same position through Sat as
a surface trough forms over the SW Gulf. The gradient between this
surface trough and high pressure over the southern U.S. is likely
to induce a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds over the
central Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level anti-cyclonic flow prevails across the basin,
limiting any shower or thunderstorm activity for most areas. An
upper level trough over the Atlantic extends S to the NE Caribbean
and is inducing a surface trough that stretches from the Leeward
Islands near 17N62W to 12.5N66W. As a result, cloudiness with
embedded isolated showers prevails over the SE Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trades are occurring in the south-central
Caribbean, while mainly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean and 3-6
ft elsewhere, except up to 6-8 ft in the NE Caribbean passages due
to NE swell from the Atlantic.

For the forecast, high pressure building east of Florida will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
Sea through Fri, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Moderate
long-period N to NE swell will continue to propagate through the
NE Caribbean passages for much of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on a Gale
Warning in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N52W to 27N60W to 23N72W, then
continues as a stationary front through the Bahamas to Ft.
Lauderdale, FL. Fresh E winds are located N of the stationary
front across the NW Bahamas to the east coast of central Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is near and within 90 nm SE of the
cold front, mainly east of 60W and north of 25.5N. Another area
of convection related to the front is located north of 27.5N
between 45W and 59W. Fresh SW winds are likely occurring within
this second area of convection. Seas west of 65W and north of 23N
are generally 8 to 10 ft in NE swell. A high pressure center of
1020 mb is near 31N76W.

A surface trough extends from 20N58W to 16N62W. A cluster of
numerous moderate convection exists from 17N to 22N between 51W
and 57W, enhanced by upper-level diffluence. 1021 mb high pressure
is near 32N24W, while 1020 mb high pressure is near 24N26W. In the
far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong W winds and 9 to 11 ft seas are
occurring north of 29N and east of 25W. The subtropical surface
ridge, containing light to gentle winds near it, extends from
26N35W to 21N55W to 21N69W. The large swell occurring for the past
several days across the entire Atlantic has subsided somewhat, but
seas of 7 to 10 ft still prevail across the basin, with 10 to 12
ft seas noted north of 28N between 56W and 63W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 29N55W to
23N70W, then curves as a stationary front to near West Palm
Beach, FL. The front will weaken today as high pressure builds in
east of Florida. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to
affect much of the area for the next couple of days. A large and
powerful low pressure system north of the area will bring strong
to near gale force W winds tonight through Thu night to the waters
east of 65W and north of 27N. Very large seas can be expected in
this area. Farther west, fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop offshore NE Florida beginning tonight as a strong cold
front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front is
forecast to move off the coast late Thu, reach from near 31N74W to
West Palm Beach, FL early Fri, and from near 31N65W to the
Florida Keys early Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
likely to move offshore the Florida coast on Thu. On Sun, a
reinforcing cold front is expected to merge with it. The merged
front is expected to reach from near 31N62W to the central Bahamas
and western Cuba Sun night. The fresh to strong southerly winds
will shift eastward across the northern and central waters through
Sat and exit the area late Sat. Fresh northwest to north winds
will follow in behind the merged front.

$$
Hagen
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