[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131817 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane
Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Dec 13 2022

Corrected Caribbean Sea section and Atlantic Ocean section, in
order to include an upper level trough

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W, to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W, to
02N30W 02N42W, to the Equator along 50W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 50W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through Andros Island in the Bahamas, to
South Florida near 25N80W. A stationary front continues
northwestward, from 25N80W, into the Gulf of Mexico, toward SE
Louisiana. A warm front continues northwestward, from SE
Louisiana, to north central Texas. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate is from 24N northward. A surface
trough extends from the coastal waters of NE Mexico to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

Fresh SSE winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5
feet, are in the western Gulf of Mexico. Fresh SE winds, and sea
heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are to the south of
the Florida Panhandle, related to broad surface low pressure.
Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot
to 3 feet, are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure ridging over the area will shift eastward through
tonight as a cold front approaches eastern Texas. Fresh to locally
strong SE return flow is expected in the western and central Gulf
through tonight as the cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Seas
will build in the area of strongest winds. The front is expected
to move over the NW Gulf Wed morning, reach from Tampa Bay,
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Thu night, and from the
Straits of Florida to the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula by late
Fri. The front is expected to become stationary and weaken from
the lower Straits of Florida to the far south- central Gulf Sat
and Sat night. A line of thunderstorms is expected to accompany
the front Wed and Wed night across the NW and north- central Gulf.
Strong N winds are expected behind the front Wed in the western
Gulf, diminishing to moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the
front later for the central and eastern Gulf. Seas will build to a
peak of about 9 ft in the NW Gulf Wed, then shift to the NE Gulf
late Wed night into early Thu, before subsiding during the
afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...Corrected

Rainshowers are possible throughout the area, in clusters of
scattered to broken low level clouds that are in the trade wind
flow. Gentle to moderate trade winds cover the majority of the
basin. The exception is within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia,
where the winds are moderate to fresh. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet in the eastern and southern sections of the
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are reaching 8 feet in the Mona
Passage and in Anegada Passage, due to large northeasterly swell
from the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4
feet elsewhere.

The base of an upper level trough is reaching the area that is
between 50W and 60W near 10N. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong is 11N to 14N between 55W and 60W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 14N southward
between 50W and 64W, including in the SE Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W in Colombia, southwestward,
beyond the border of Panama and Costa Rica, into the tropical NE
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in a
few cells of convective precipitation, in the Gulf of Uraba.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward.

24-hour rainfall totals, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, for the time period that ends at 13/1200
UTC, are: 0.28 in Trinidad.

Weak high pressure ridging north of the Caribbean Sea is allowing
for gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds across the
basin, except for fresh to pulsing locally strong NE to E winds
offshore Colombia. Little change is expected through tonight.
Then, winds will increase slightly across the basin beginning Wed
as high pressure builds to the east of Florida. Large long-period
N to NE swell will continue to propagate through the NE Caribbean
passages and affect the Tropical N Atlantic waters for much of the
week. Another large set of N swell is forecast to begin to
propagate through the Tropical N Atlantic waters starting late on
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected

A cold front passes through 31N61W, to 26N70W, toward the central
Bahamas near 24N76W, through Andros Island, to South Florida near
25N80W. A stationary front continues northwestward, from 25N80W,
into the Gulf of Mexico, toward SE Louisiana. A warm front
continues northwestward, from SE Louisiana, to north central
Texas. A surface trough curves from Haiti to 24N71W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to
the east and southeast of the cold front from 21N northward. Fresh
N winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 11 feet in
mixed N wind waves and NE swell, are from the front northward.

The wind speeds are gentle, and the sea heights range from 8 feet
to 10 feet due to large long-period swell, for the Atlantic Ocean
that is from the front southward and from the Bahamas eastward.

The base of an upper level trough is reaching the area that is
between 50W and 60W near 10N. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong is 11N to 14N between 55W and 60W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 14N southward
between 50W and 64W, including in the SE Caribbean Sea.

A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 29N44W. One surface trough
extends eastward from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 30N38W.
A second surface trough extends southwestward from the 1016 mb low
pressure center, to 24N47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate, in
general, is from 20N northward between 20W and the 31N61W 24N76W
cold front.

A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center that
is at the western edge of the Canary Islands, to a second 1020 mb
high pressure center that is near 22N38W, to 20N60W.

Mostly gentle winds, and elevated seas in large swell, are from
20N to 30N between 35W and 53W.

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 26N70W to the central Bahamas
and to South Florida. The front will reach from near 30N55W to
the central Bahamas this evening, then weaken on Wed as high
pressure builds in east of Florida. Moderate to fresh N winds will
come in behind this front today. Large long- period N to NE swell
will continue to affect much of the area for the next couple of
days. A large and powerful low pressure system north of the area
will bring strong to near gale force W winds Wed night through Thu
night to the waters east of 65W and north of 27N. Very large seas
can be expected in this area. Farther west, fresh to strong
southerly winds are expected to develop offshore NE Florida
beginning Wed night as a strong cold front approaches the
southeastern U.S. coast. The front is forecast to move off the
coast late Thu, reach from near 31N75W to West Palm Beach, Florida
early Fri, and from near 31N64W to the Florida Keys early Sat.
The fresh to strong southerly winds will shift eastward across the
northern and central waters through Sat, while fresh west to
northwest winds are expected behind the front.

$$
mt/ja
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