[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near the
border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and extends to
09N19W. The ITCZ continues from 09N19W to 04N27W to 03N40W to
00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04N-06N between
31W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf coast,
which is leading to cloudiness and isolated showers for the
northern Gulf, north of 28N. Earlier ASCAT and recent buoy data
show fresh SSE winds over the western Gulf of Mexico, where seas
are 3 to 5 ft. Fresh SE winds are occurring south of the Florida
Panhandle in association with a surface trough. Seas are 2-4 ft in
this area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the area will shift
eastward through tonight as a cold front approaches eastern Texas.
Fresh to strong SE return flow and building seas are expected in
the western and central Gulf through tonight as the cold front
approaches the NW Gulf. The front is expected to move over the NW
Gulf Wed morning, reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by Thu night, and from the Straits of Florida to
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. The front is
expected to become stationary and weaken from the lower Straits of
Florida to the far south-central Gulf Sat and Sat night. A line
of thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front Wed and Wed
night across the NW and north-central Gulf. Strong N winds are
expected behind the front Wed in the western Gulf, diminishing to
moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front later for the
central and eastern Gulf. Seas will build to a peak of about 9 ft
in the NW Gulf Wed, then shift to the NE Gulf late Wed night into
early Thu, before subsiding during the afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Most of the Caribbean Sea is under fairly tranquil conditions
with no significant convection to note. Gentle to moderate trade
winds prevail over a majority of the basin. The exception is
within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia, where moderate to fresh
winds are occurring. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the eastern and
southern Caribbean, except up to 8 ft in the Mona and Anegada
Passages due to large northeasterly swell from the Atlantic.
Elsewhere, seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, little change in these conditions is expected
through tonight. Winds will increase slightly across the basin
beginning Wed as high pressure builds to the east of Florida.
Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to propagate through
the NE Caribbean passages for much of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to a weak 1012 mb low pressure
center near 28N71W to Grand Bahama Island. Scattered showers and
tstorms are noted within 45 nm either side of the frontal
boundary east of 70W and north of 27N. Fresh N winds are occurring
north of the front with seas of 8-11 ft in mixed N wind waves and
NE swell. A surface trough is analyzed from 27N69W to the N coast
of Haiti near 20N73W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from
23N-25N between 69W-71W. A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near
22N67W. To the south of the aforementioned cold front, winds over
the western Atlantic are gentle, due to ridging that extends from
the high pressure center. However, seas are still 8-10 ft east of
the Bahamas due to large, long-period NE swell.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 17N48W to 10N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-18N between
45W-61W. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows plentiful moisture
content in this area. A 1017 mb high pressure is centered near
22N35W. This high is along a surface ridge that connects to the
1016 mb high pressure near 22N67W, mentioned above. To the north,
an eastward-moving cold front extends from 31N23W to 27N33W. This
front has weakened since yesterday. Mostly gentle winds prevail
from 20N-30N between 35W-53W but large swell is keeping seas
elevated in the region.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front in the western
Atlantic will reach from near 30N55W to the central Bahamas this
evening, then weaken on Wed as high pressure builds in east of
Florida. Moderate to fresh N winds will come in behind this front
today. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to affect
much of the area for the next couple of days. A large and powerful
low pressure system north of the area will bring strong to near
gale force W winds Wed night through Thu night to the waters east
of 65W and north of 27N. Very large seas can be expected in this
area. Farther west, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected
to develop offshore NE Florida beginning Wed night as a strong
cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front is
forecast to move off the coast late Thu, reach from near 31N75W to
West Palm Beach, Florida early Fri, and from near 31N64W to the
Florida Keys early Sat. The fresh to strong southerly winds will
shift eastward across the northern and central waters through Sat,
while fresh west to northwest winds are expected behind the
front.

$$
Hagen
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