[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters from the coast of
Guinea near 09N13W and extends to 08.5N19W. The ITCZ continues
from 08.5N19W to 05.5N41W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N southward from 42W east to the west coast of
Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends into the northeastern Gulf from near Tampa,
FL and continues northwestward to 29N85W, where it transitions
to a stationary front that extends northward into the Florida
panhandle. Scattered showers associated with the frontal
boundary are observed north of 27N from the west coast of
Florida to 90W.  Otherwise, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
prevails across the Gulf with seas ranging mostly 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, quiescent conditions will prevail through Mon
as a surface ridge over the area begins to shift eastward. Fresh
to locally strong SE return flow is expected in the western and
central Gulf Mon night into Tue night as a cold front approaches
the NW Gulf. Seas will build in the area of strongest winds. The
front is expected to move over the NW Gulf Wed morning, reach
from southwest Florida to the NW Yucatan Peninsula by Thu night
and from NW Cuba to the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula by late
Fri. Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind the front Wed
in the western Gulf, decreasing to moderate to fresh northerly
winds behind the front later for the central and eastern Gulf.
An area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is
currently affecting portions of the north-central and northeast
Gulf in association with a weak stationary frontal boundary.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western end of a weakening Atlantic cold front extends from
the central Atlantic southwestward, crossing into the extreme NE
Caribbean to 17N66W. The monsoon trough extends from the
northwest coast of Colombia near 10N76, through eastern Panama,
and southern Costa Rica, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean.
Despite these features, fairly quiet weather prevails across the
basin.

Light to gentle N to NE winds are found across the E Caribbean
to the east of 66W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft in mainly NE swell
moving through the Caribbean Passage, where seas are as high as
6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the southern half of
the central Caribbean Sea, in the Windward Passage, and off the
coast of SE Cuba in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate easterly winds
or slower are elsewhere. Sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet
from Jamaica westward, and from 2 feet to 4 feet from Jamaica
eastward.

For the forecast, large long-period N to NE swell across the
central Atlantic will be reinforced by another pulse of long-
period swell during the early part of the week. This swell will
continue to pass through the NE Caribbean passages and affect
the Tropical N Atlantic waters during the next few days. High
pressure north of the Caribbean is allowing for gentle to
moderate northeast to east trade winds across the basin, except
for fresh to strong pulsing northeast to east winds offshore
Colombia during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N78W to
near Melbourne, Florida. A surface trough is analyzed southeast
of the front from  28N77W to 21N76W. Scattered showers are noted
between the frontal boundary and surface trough  north of 28.5N
between 76W and the northeastern coast of Florida.

Another cold front enters the central Atlantic waters through
31N33.5W to 17N60W, continuing across the waters and islands of
the extreme NE Caribbean to 17N66W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the
front to the north of 22N. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is also noted ahead of the front, from 23N to 27N
between 30W and 36W. A low pressure center is located northwest
of the front near 32N45W with an attendant trough that extends
southwest to 29N53W. Scattered moderate convection with these
features is observed north of 28N between 41W and 52W. A recent
scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong SW winds are found
ahead of the front, north of 20N, while moderate to fresh broad
cyclonic wind flow prevails north of the front and east of 63W.
Large N and NW swell dominates much of the central and W
Atlantic, producing wave heights of 8 to 15 ft north of the
front, and 7 to 11 ft west of 67W to the Bahamas and north
Florida coastal waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in north swell south
of the front and into the deep tropics.

Over the eastern Atlantic, a 1019 mb high pressure is centered
near 25N24W. Broad surface anticyclonic flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 10N northward from 10N to the cold front. Strong to
near gale force SW winds prevail within 400 nm E of the front,
and north of 20N.  The sea heights range from 7 feet to 15 feet
from 15N northward from 40W eastward.

For the forecast, the central Atlantic cold front from 19N55W to
17N63W will weaken as it shifts east of the area by late
tonight. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to impact
the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the
southeastern Bahamas and the eastern Caribbean, producing high
seas into late Tue. Long-period NE to E swell is expected to
continue affecting the Florida offshore waters north of 27N
during the next few days. Hazardous marine conditions are
likely, especially east of the Bahamas through late Tue. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop
offshore NE Florida beginning late Wed night as a strong cold
front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front is
forecast to move off the coast late Thu, reach from near 31N77W
to South Florida early Fri, and from 31N71W to the central
Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Fri night. The fresh to
strong southerly winds will shift eastward across the northern
and central waters, while fresh to strong west to northwest
winds follow in behind the front. Seas will build with these
winds.

$$
Nepaul
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