[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Dec 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A deepening 958 mb non-tropical
low pressure system is located near 36N39W. A cold front
associated with the low extends from a triple point and enters
the central Atlantic waters near 31N33W to 21N45W while the warm
front reach the E Atlantic waters from 31N23W to the Canary
Islands. A very large area of gale force winds remain N of 24N
between the front and 35W, however a broad area of fresh to near
gale force winds cover the region N of 21N between 24W and 47W.
Scattered showers and tstms associated with the broad area of low
pressure and fronts cover the NE Atlantic subtropical waters. Seas
of 8 to 25 ft cover the entire subtropical waters with the highest
seas of 13 ft to 25 ft being in the vicinity of the cold front.
Conditions will gradually improve this evening in the subtropical
Atlantic as the low moves quickly NE. However, seas will remain
very rough north of 25N through the weekend. Large, long-period N
to NE swell will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages
between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean producing
high seas into the start of next week, with large E swell reaching
the Florida offshore waters N of 26N through Sat.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A new low will develop
along 65W and N of 31N by late Sat and move SSE entering the
central Atlantic this weekend. Gale-force winds will develop near
the low along 28N. These conditions will dissipate by early next
week as the low moves quickly E while weakening.

More information about these systems, including the associated
Storm and Gale Warnings, can be found in the High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters from the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W and extends to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from
08N17W to 03N46W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ from
01N to 08N between 34W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues meandering over the northern Gulf waters
while a surface trough remains in the Bay of Campeche. The ridge
anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over the Louisiana coastal
waters provides gentle to moderate E to SE winds S of 27N, except
for moderate to fresh winds between the surface trough in the Bay
of Campeche and the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are 3-4 ft basin-wide.

For the forecast, the high will meander through the weekend, then
shift eastward early next week as a cold front approaches the NW
Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the weekend,
increasing to moderate to fresh early next week. Winds may
increase to locally strong speeds and seas build up to 7-8 ft in
the western Gulf as the aforementioned front approaches from the
NW.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the
western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is generating
moderate to fresh NE winds west of 70W in Caribbean, including
the Windward Passage, where seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range.
Locally strong NE winds are off NW Colombia. In the E Caribbean,
gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds prevail with mainly 4 to
6 ft seas. Seas are 8 to 12 ft near and SW of Atlantic passages
due to long period NE swell originating from the gale force low in
the central Atlantic.

For the forecast, the intense non-tropical cyclone over the north
Atlantic will continue to move away from our area. Large NE swell
across the central Atlantic will continue move through the
Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through late Sat,
decreasing on Sun and increasing again early next week as another
swell event reaches the region. Ridge north of the Caribbean
maintains NE-E winds across much of the forecast waters. Fresh to
strong pulsing NE-E winds will occur in offshore Colombia into
early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warnings active in the basin and a new developing low that
will lead to new gales.

Elsewhere, a cold front extends from 31N58W to 29N68W to 30N75W
supporting fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 25N between the
front and 68W along with 11 ft seas. Seas of 8 to 11 ft cover the
remainder SW N Atlantic waters E of the Bahamas due to long period
NE swell associated with the low in the special features.

For the forecast W of 55W, the powerful non-tropical low over the
north Atlantic will continue to move away from the SW Atlantic.
Large long-period north to northeast swell will continue to impact
the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the
southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean, producing high seas into
the start of next week, with large E swell reaching the Florida
offshore waters N of 26N through Sat. A new low will develop E of
Bermuda late Sat and move SE entering the central Atlantic this
weekend. Gale-force winds will develop late Sat N of 28N and E of
70W. These conditions will dissipate by late Sun as the low moves
quickly E while weakening.

$$
Ramos
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