[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090415
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Storm Warning: A non-tropical low pressure area
with a central pressure of 977 mb is located about 1000 nautical
miles east of Bermuda near 31N45W. An extensive area of
scattered moderate convection is observed north of 18N, between
24W and 55W. Storm force winds remain in the NW quadrant of the
low, embedded in a very large area of gale force winds within
300 nm west of the low and 500 nm east of the low. Very rough to
high seas cover an extensive area north of 16N, between 24W and
55W. Conditions will gradually improve through Fri in the
subtropical Atlantic as the low moves NE. However, seas will
remain very rough north of 25N through the weekend. Large long-
period north to northeast swell will impact the Atlantic waters
and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the
E Caribbean producing high seas into the start of next week,
with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N
early Fri through Sat.

More information about this system, including the associated
Storm Warning, can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 04N37W. A surface
trough extends from 10N42W to 04N43W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from the equator to 12N, between 30W and
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb surface high is centered over SE Louisiana supporting
generally fair weather conditions and mainly gentle to moderate
easterly winds over the basin. Seas remain 3 to 5 ft over the
majority of the basin, with 1 to 3 ft seas in the NE basin.

For the forecast, high pressure near SE Louisiana will meander
in the vicinity of the NE Gulf through the upcoming weekend. The
ridge will shift eastward early next week as a cold front
approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
through the weekend, increasing to moderate to fresh early next
week. Winds may increase to strong as seas build up to 8 ft late
Tue in the NW Gulf as the aforementioned front approaches from
the NW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the
western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is generating
moderate to fresh NE winds west of 70W in Caribbean Sea,
including the Windward Passage, where seas are in the 6 to 7 ft
range. In the E Caribbean, gentle to moderate N winds prevail
with mainly 4-6 ft seas. Seas are 8 to 10 ft near and SW of
Atlantic passages due to long period NE swell originating from
the storm force low in the central Atlantic.

For the forecast, the intense low pressure system in the central
Atlantic is gradually lifting northeastward away from the area
through the weekend. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic
will move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic
waters through late Sat. The current weather pattern will
sustain NE-E winds across much of the forecast waters. Fresh to
strong pulsing NE-E winds will occur in offshore Colombia into
early next week. Moderate to fresh NE winds, occasionally
pulsing to strong speeds, will affect the Caribbean Passages and
the lees of the Greater Antilles into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
storm force low pressure system, affecting the waters north of
16N between 25W and 55W.

Elsewhere, a weak high pressure ridge off NE Florida is
supporting gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in the far western
Atlantic. In the far eastern Atlantic, weak high pressure
prevails offshore W Africa, causing gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow.

For the forecast W of 55W, the intense low pressure system over
the subtropical Atlantic is forecast to accelerate tonight and
Fri into the north Atlantic and strengthen into a powerful non-
tropical cyclone. Large long-period north to northeast swell
will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between
the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean producing high seas
into the start of next week, with large E swell reaching the
Florida offshore waters N of 26N Fri through Sat.

$$
Flynn
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