[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080415
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Dec 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Storm Warning: A large, storm-force low pressure
system is centered near 29N53W, or about 640 nm ESE of Bermuda.
The central pressure is 980 mb. The maximum winds of 50-55 kt are
located in the NW quadrant. The gales extend outward up to 450 nm
from the center in the N semicircle, 330 nm SE quadrant and 450
nm SW quadrant. Winds of 25 kt or higher associated with the low
are currently occurring north of 20N between 40W and 67W. Seas 12
ft or greater are occurring north of 20N between 43W and 68W. Seas 8
ft or greater are occurring everywhere north of 17N between
35W-74W. The estimated maximum seas of 35 ft are occurring in the
NW quadrant near 30N 56W. An occluded front extends E from the low
pressure to 29N38W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
within 210 nm of the front.

Although this system may acquire some subtropical characteristics
tonight and Thursday, it is unlikely to become completely
detached from a frontal zone. By Friday, the low will move
northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude
trough, limiting the chance for additional subtropical or
tropical development of the system. Regardless of development,
winds on the northern and western portions of this low will remain
storm force through Thu afternoon. Gales will then continue in the
central Atlantic through Fri. Overall, there is a medium chance
of subtropical or tropical development within the next 48 hours.
More information about this system, including the associated storm
warning, can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore
Zone Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 05N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N, between
30W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb surface high pressure is centered near the Florida
Panhandle, causing gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas in the NE Gulf.
This feature is also supporting areas of dense fog in the
northern Gulf that will linger through Thu morning. In the
southern Gulf, easterly winds are moderate to fresh with 3-5 ft
seas. In the western Gulf, SE winds are moderate with 2-4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the high pressure system will meander about the
area through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate mainly SE
winds will prevail through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the
western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is generating
fresh to locally strong NE winds in the central and western
Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. In the E Caribbean,
gentle to moderate N winds prevail. Seas in the central and W
Caribbean are 5-7 ft and seas in the E Caribbean 3-4 ft except 5-8
ft of N swell through the Mona and Anegada Passages.

For the forecast, a strong low pressure system currently over the
central Atlantic will continue to deepen during the next few
days, maintaining NE-E winds across much of the forecast waters.
Fresh to pulsing strong NE winds will affect the Caribbean
Passages, the lees of the Greater Antilles, and offshore
Colombia through Fri. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic
will move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic
waters through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
storm force low pressure system, affecting the waters north of 18N
between 35W and 75W.

Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern prevails off central and
northern Florida, with gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in the far
western Atlantic. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends
from 31N13W to 24N24W. North of the front, moderate WNW winds and
8-12 ft seas dominate. South of the front, a 1015 mb high
pressure center is analyzed near 19N32W, causing light to gentle
winds and 5-8 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, large long-period north to northeast
swell will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages
between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean producing
high seas through the weekend, with large E swell reaching the
Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri through Sat.

$$
Flynn
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