[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Storm Warning:

A large area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands, centered near 26N53W and with a minimum central
pressure of 999 mb, continues to produce a broad area of showers
and thunderstorms in the northern semicircle of the low.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the
next couple of days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will
move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-
latitude trough, limiting subtropical or tropical development of
the system.

Regardless of subtropical or tropical development, gale force
winds are already occurring with this feature. The area of 35 to
40 kt winds exists mainly in the W semicircle of the low and the
NE quadrant between 46W and 57W. Strong to near gale force winds
are N of 21N between 41W and 63W. Winds in the N semicircle will
increase through tonight and reach storm force Wed. Winds will
then diminish slightly with gales continuing Wed night through Thu
night. Peak seas are 22 ft, with a broad area of 12 ft or higher
seas N of 22N between 43W and 64W. The radius of hazardous seas
will continue to expand over the next few days, with waves
reaching as high as 30 ft to the N and W of the center Wed and Wed
night. More information about this system, including storm
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 05N22W
to 06N40W to 07N45W. Scattered moderate convection is south of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis from 00N to 07N between 12W and
38W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 04N to 08N
between 40W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb surface high pressure centered south of the Florida Big
Bend is dominating the Gulf of Mexico, precluding any convection.
With this feature in place, light to gentle variable winds are
across the NE basin while moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds
dominte elsewhere along with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure centered across the NE Gulf will
meander about the NE Gulf and North Florida through Fri night.
Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail W of 92W through Wed
night then diminish through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over Florida and
lower pressure in the southern and eastern Caribbean is allowing
for fresh to strong NE winds offshore Colombia, in the Windward
Passage, south of Hispaniola and in the lee of southern Cuba and
the Cayman Islands, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh
winds cover the remainder of the western, southwestern, and
central Caribbean, where seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft. Winds are
mainly moderate and northerly in the eastern basin. Seas in the
east are 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft in and near Atlantic
passages, due to long period northerly swell.

For the forecast, deepening low pressure across the central
Atlantic during the next few days will maintain NE winds across
much of the basin, and fresh to locally strong NE winds through
the Caribbean Passages, in the lee of Cuba, and offshore Colombia
through Thu night. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will
move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters
through the weekend, with highest seas early Thu through Fri
evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
gale-producing low pressure SE of Bermuda that has a potential
for tropical or subtropical development over the next 48 hours.
Storm force winds are expected with this low over portions of
the waters starting Wed, regardless of tropical or subtropical
development.

The powerful and strengthening low pressure is dominating
weather across much of the basin. The pressure gradient between
this system and high pressure over the eastern U.S. is allowing
for fresh to strong N winds north of 21N between 58W and 70W
where seas are 8 to 15 ft. Mainly moderate NE to E winds are
elsewhere in the SW N Atlantic waters. A cold front extends from
30N21W to 26N29W where it stalls and continues W to just N of the
area of low pressure near 27N53W.

For the forecast for areas W of 55W, the complex area of low
pressure is expected to move NE and out of the regional waters
Fri. Large long-period north to northeast swell will impact the
Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern
Bahamas and the E Caribbean producing high seas throughout the
week, with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of
26N early Fri through Sat.

$$
Ramos
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