[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Storm Warning:

A large area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands, centered near 26N53W and with a minimum central
pressure of 999 mb, continues to produce a broad area of showers
and thunderstorms in the northern semicircle of the low.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for
development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the
next couple of days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will
move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-
latitude trough, limiting subtropical or tropical development of
the system.

Regardless of subtropical or tropical development, gale force
winds are already occurring with this feature. The area of 35 to
40 kt winds exists mainly in the W semicircle of the low and the
NE quadrant between 46W and 57W. Strong to near gale force winds
are N of 21N between 41W and 63W. Winds in the N semicircle will
increase through tonight and reach storm force Wed. Winds will
then diminish slightly with gales continuing Wed night through Thu
night. Peak seas are 22 ft, with a broad area of 12 ft or higher
seas N of 22N between 43W and 64W. The radius of hazardous seas
will continue to expand over the next few days, with waves
reaching as high as 30 ft to the N and W of the center Wed and Wed
night. More information about this system, including storm
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 06N30W
to 05N46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis from 02N to 06N between 10W and
20W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 03N to 07N
between 29W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb surface high pressure centered offshore the Florida
Big Bend is dominating the Gulf of Mexico this morning,
precluding any convection. Light to gentle mainly SE winds
dominate the eastern half of the Gulf, with seas 3 ft or less.
Moderate S to SE return flow is over the Gulf west of 87W where
seas are 3 to 5 ft. Buoy observations west of 94W are recording
locally fresh winds, where seas are up to 5 ft. Fog within 30 nm
of the northeastern Gulf coast is beginning to dissipate, but
limited visibility may still exist in some areas.

For the forecast, high pressure centered across the NE Gulf will
meander about the NE Gulf and North Florida through Fri night.
Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail W of 92W through Wed
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over Florida and
lower pressure in the southern and eastern Caribbean is allowing
for fresh to strong NE winds offshore Colombia, in the Windward
Passage, south of Hispaniola and south of Cuba and the Cayman
Islands, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A recent satellite
scatterometer pass reveals moderate to fresh winds covering the
remainder of the western, southwestern, and central Caribbean
west of 70W, where seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft. Winds are mainly
moderate and northerly in the eastern basin. Seas in the east
are 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft in and near Atlantic passages,
due to long period northerly swell. No significant convection is
occurring in the Caribbean this morning.

For the forecast, low pressure across the central Atlantic will
deepen during the next few days, inducing NE winds across much
of the basin, and fresh to locally strong NE winds through the
Caribbean Passages, in the lee of Cuba, and offshore Colombia
into Thu night. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will
move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters
through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
gale-producing low pressure SE of Bermuda that has a potential
for tropical or subtropical development over the next 48 hours.
Storm force winds are expected with this low over portions of
the waters starting Wed, regardless of tropical or subtropical
development.

The powerful and strengthening low pressure is dominating
weather across much of the basin. The pressure gradient between
this system and high pressure over the eastern U.S. is allowing
for fresh to strong N winds north of 20N between 71W and 60W
where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Mainly moderate NE to E winds are
between 71W and the Florida Peninsula where seas are 5 to 7 ft,
except over the N Bahamas seas are below 6 ft. On the eastern
side of the deepening low, a stationary front extends along 27N,
supporting fresh to strong NE winds north of the boundary out to
28W.

The far eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1018 mb high pressure
center located just north of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow surrounds the high, remaining south
of 27N and extending out to near 44W. North of 24N and east of
25W, winds increase to fresh from the SW due to an incoming cold
front that extends from 31N23W to 26N29W.

For the forecast for areas W of 55W, much of the region will be
dominated by the previously discussed low pressure NE of the
Leeward Islands, that is described and forecast in more detail
in the Special Features section above. Otherwise, large
long-period north to northeast swell will impact the Atlantic
waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas
and the E Caribbean with high seas throughout the week, with
large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N
early Fri through Sat.

$$
Ramos
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