[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Dec 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front currently extends from 31N51W
to 26N60W. The pressure gradient between the front and 1011 mb
low pressure centered near 24N50W is supporting gale force NE
winds N of 28N between 48W and 55W. Seas are currently 11-16 ft in
N swell. The cold front will continue to move southeast towards
the low pressure. The low is expected to remain stationary and
deepen over the next 24 hours. Gales will prevail through tonight
before diminishing to near gale force on Sunday. Seas will build
to 13-18 ft by Sunday morning, remaining hazardous through at
least Monday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to
06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to the coast of Guyana near
06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between
18W and 22W and from 05N to 09N between 38W and 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico, except for a weak trough in
the W Bay of Campeche near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Light
and variable winds prevail in the basin north of 27N. Gentle to
moderate E winds prevail south of 27N, locally fresh in the
Straits of Florida. Seas are 3-5 across most of the Gulf, with
5-7 ft seas noted in the SE Gulf, including within the Yucatan
Channel and Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the far northern
Gulf tonight, then stall Sun and dissipate Sun night. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front and dominate much of
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh NNE winds continue in the central and western
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades in the eastern
Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between building
high pressure to the north and climatological low pressure over
Colombia will continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E
trades across the area through tonight, with areas of strong winds
in the lee of the Greater Antilles, the Windward Passage, and
offshore Colombia. Winds will then slowly diminish for the start
of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Gale
Warning in the central Atlantic.

A cold front currently extends from 31N51W to 26N60W. A shear line
continues from 26N60W to the coast of Cuba near 23N79W. Outside of
the Gale Warning, fresh to strong NE winds are noted to the north
of both the front and the shear line. Strong to near gale force
NE winds are north of 25N between 45W and the cold front. Gentle
NNE winds are south of the shear line. Seas greater than 8 ft are
north of a line from 31N45W to 21N69W to 27N78W. Seas greater
than 12 ft are north of 26N between 50W and 73W. Highest seas are
in the Gale Warning Area. Scattered moderate convection is from
27N to 29N between 56W and 65W and from 26N to 31N between 43W and
50W.

In the east Atlantic, a cold front extends from the Canary
Islands to 26N26W to 31N40W. Moderate N winds are behind the
front. Seas behind this front are 8 to 11 ft in long period N
swell.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, gentle to moderate trades prevail
with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Gale Warned cold front will slide
east tonight while the shear line dissipates. High pressure
building in the wake of the front will lead to strong NE to E
winds across much of the forecast area into Sun. Long- period
north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the
southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas through the
start of next week.

$$
Mahoney
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