[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: As low pressure centered near 21N50W
remains nearly stationary and gradually strengthens, a cold front
currently stretching from near 31N54W to the SE Bahamas will
approach the low and interact with it. The pressure gradient
between the low and high pressure building into the NW Atlantic
behind the front will cause the already strong to near gale-force
NE winds behind the front to increase to gale force later this
morning N of 28N between 45W and 55W. These gales will prevail
through tonight, before diminishing slightly Sun. Seas of 10 to 15
ft this morning will increase to 15 to 20 ft by this evening, and
remain hazardous through the remainder of the weekend. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W to 05N31W to 05N49W. Precipitation: Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N E of 20W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 38W
and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge axis along the northern Gulf Coast is
leading to light to gentle winds over the northern half of the
Gulf as well as within 120 nm of the coast of northern Mexico.
Moderate to fresh E winds dominate the SE basin. Seas are 3 to 5
ft, except 5 to 7 ft in the SE Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure
is suppressing any convection over the basin this morning.

For the forecast, a cold front is likely to approach the far
northern Gulf tonight, then stall Sun and dissipate Sun night.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front and dominate
much of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered in the
NW Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is leading to
moderate to fresh NE to E trades over much of the basin. With the
high nosing SW toward the ridge, winds have increased to strong
offshore Cuba and Hispaniola, in the Windward Passage, and
offshore Colombia. Seas are 5 to 7 ft. Aside from scattered
moderate convection associated with low level speed shear in the
Gulf of Honduras, dry conditions dominate the Caribbean this
morning.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will prevail,
causing moderate to fresh NE to E trades to continue through
tonight, with areas of strong winds in the lee of the Greater
Antilles, the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia. Winds will
then slowly diminish for the start of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
developing gales to the SE of Bermuda later this morning.

A cold front extends from 31N54W to 26N64W to the SE Bahamas. N of
24N, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring
along and within 120 nm ahead of the cold front. Behind the front,
widespread strong to near gale force NE winds dominate areas E of
75W, with moderate to fresh winds farther W. Seas in the area of
strong winds are 10 to 15 ft and increasing. To the E, low
pressure is organizing near 25N51W, with a trough extending from
the 1013 mb low northward to 30N and southward to 20N. Strong to
near gale force NE winds are occurring in the NW quadrant of this
low, continuing NW to the aforementioned cold front. In the NE
quadrant, N of 25N and between 44W and 51W, numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring.

Over the east Atlantic, another cold front extends from the Canary
Islands to 26N26W to 31N40W. Moderate to fresh N winds are behind
the front, with some strong NW winds well N of 31N, between the
Canary Islands and the Azores. Seas behind this front are 8 to 10
ft.

For the remainder of the basin N of 20N, winds are moderate or
less and seas are 5 to 7 ft. To the S, moderate to locally fresh
trades dominate with similar seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will slide east and out
of the area by tonight. High pressure in the wake of the front
will lead to strong NE to E winds across much of the forecast area
into Sun. Long- period north to northeast swell will impact the
waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough
seas through the start of next week.

$$
KONARIK
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