[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Sep 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic: Data from a NOAA aircraft
reconnaissance mission earlier today showed little change in
organization of the 1008 mb area of low pressure located several
hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 15.5N51W.
Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N
to 19N between 47W and 53W, with scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection elsewhere from 07N to 20N between 45W and 58W.
Currently, winds are 20-25 kt with seas of 8-10 ft, mainly in the
northern semicircle. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, additional gradual development of this
system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to
move slowly west- northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the
northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance
over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms associated
with a broad 1006 mb area of low pressure located just to the
northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands near 17.5N21W have changed
little since earlier today. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 15.5N to 20N between 19W and 27W. This low is along a
tropical wave which extends south of 21N along 21W. Some gradual
development is possible, and the system could become a short-
lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the
next couple of days. By late this week, environmental conditions
are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further
development. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy
rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thu. This
feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through
48 hours, and a medium chance over the next 5 days. Please read
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for additional information.

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A 1016 mb area of low pressure is
showing signs of organization over the central subtropical
Atlantic about 850 nautical miles west-southwest of the
westernmost Azores, near 38N46W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm southeast of a line from 39.5N43W to the low
to 34.5N50W. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression is likely to form within the next day or so, while the
system drifts generally eastward. This feature has a high chance
of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please
read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at
https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for additional
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NW Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 85W, south of
21N, drifting very slowly at 5 kt or less. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is located from 13N to 18N between 80W
and 85W, including over portions of extreme eastern Honduras and
NE Nicaragua, with similar activity from 16N to 18N between 85W
and 87W just northeast of the Gulf of Honduras.

A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis near 93W/94W,
south of 20N, across southern Mexico just east of the Chivela Pass,
and into the eastern Pacific Ocean, drifting slowly around 5 kt.
Nearby convection is confined to land.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
border of Western Sahara and Mauritania from 21.5N17W to 1006 mb
low pressure near 17.5N21W to 11N33W to 1008 mb low pressure near
15.5N51W to just off the coast of Guayana at 08N59W. Outside of
tropical wave activity, widely scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 12N between 20W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretches from the Florida panhandle near
Apalachee Bay to the central Gulf near 24N89W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near this feature. A few
widely isolated showers and thunderstorms are also observed
throughout the basin. Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient is
supporting favorable marine conditions with gentle winds and
slight seas across the Gulf.

For the forecast, E winds should pulse to moderate or fresh Fri
and Sat nights over the SW Gulf due to a diurnal trough moving
off of the Yucatan. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the early next week
maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high north of the basin
and 1009 mb low pressure along the coast of Colombia near 10.5N76W
is supporting moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean
from 11N to 18N. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere,
except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean and between Haiti and
eastern Cuba. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean, and mainly
3-4 ft elsewhere, except 2-3 ft in the far SW Caribbean.
Convection in the western Caribbean is described in the tropical
wave sections. Thunderstorms are occurring just offshore and along
the coast of Colombia within 150 nm northeast of the low.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean Sea will
continue to support moderate to fresh E trades across the S
central Caribbean through Fri. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras
will reach moderate to fresh Thu through Fri night. Elsewhere,
winds and seas will be quiescent.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on areas of low pressure near 17.5N21W and 15.5N51W
with the potential to develop into tropical cyclones.

Elsewhere a 1018 mb high pressure centered near 28N68W is
dominating the pattern, creating light to gentle anticyclonic
winds and 2-4 ft seas in the western tropical Atlantic. A weak
stationary front along the SE US coast from near Cape Fear, North
Carolina to the South Carolina Low Country is generating
scattered moderate convection north of 30N between 75W and 79W.
In the eastern Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient is generating
moderate to fresh NE winds, locally strong near the Canary
Islands, and 5-7 ft seas. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and
seas of 7-8 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough between the
coast of Africa and 25W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the area of low pressure currently
near 15.5N51W is forecast to move slowly toward the west-
northwest, reaching the far SE forecast waters west of 55W on Thu.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of
the area through early next week.

$$
Lewitsky
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