[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 311148
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles
has changed little this morning.  Although environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of
this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next couple of days.  The disturbance is forecast to move
slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the
northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands have become slightly better organized. Some
gradual development is possible, and the system could become a
short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during
the next couple of days.  By late this week, environmental
conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for
further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone
over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles
west-southwest of the westernmost Azores.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the system drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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