[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 290503
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although environmental conditions ahead of the system are currently
only marginal favorable, some gradual development of this system is
expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move
slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph,
toward the waters east and northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Additional information on this system can be found in high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda
continues to produce limited shower activity.  Strong upper-level
winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of
this system while it drifts southward over the central Atlantic
during the next day or so, and the low is likely to dissipate
by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late today or tonight.  Some gradual development of the system is
possible after that time while it moves generally westward across
the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week.  Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of the system
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown
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