[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Aug 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 19N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: the
precipitation that is close to the tropical wave also is close
to the monsoon trough. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate, are within 400 nm to the east of the
tropical wave, and within 240 nm to the west of the tropical
wave. It is possible that the environmental conditions may
support some gradual development of this system during the early
and middle parts of next week, while it moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward, through the eastern and central sections of
the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 20N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either
side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The tropical wave left a
surface trough, that is along 67W from 20N. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is in the western sections of
Haiti. Isolated moderate to locally strong is between 64W and
the Windward Passage. It is possible that the environmental
conditions may become more conducive for slow development of the
trough, during the early or middle part of next week, while the
trough moves generally westward 10 to 15 mph, through the
central and northwestern Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 16N16W, to 15N20W 13N30W 11N40W 10N50W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in
clusters is within 240 nm on either side of the monsoon trough,
between the tropical waves. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong also is from 04N to 12N from 20W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N82W, about
240 nm to the NW of Jamaica, and about 160 nm to the SE of NW
Cuba. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Mexico
near 20N101W. Precipitation: earlier numerous strong was
covering the westernmost sections of the Yucatan Peninsula into
the eastern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, at 27/0000
UTC. The cloud top temperatures have been warming, and the
precipitation is comparatively weaker...widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from Nicaragua to 23N in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico between 88W and 97W. Isolated
moderate is from 25N southward from 90W eastward. A tropical
wave is moving through Mexico, along 97W/98 from 20N southward,
about 10 knots.

A frontal boundary covers the U.S.A. coastal plains from
southern Georgia, to east Texas. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are in
the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward.

A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds, and slower speeds, cover
the area. The sea heights are 2 feet or less.

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
across the Gulf waters through Wed, maintaining gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan Peninsula due to
local effects during the late afternoons and at night through
the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N82W, about
240 nm to the NW of Jamaica, and about 160 nm to the SE of NW
Cuba. Precipitation: earlier numerous strong was covering the
westernmost sections of the Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern
sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, at 27/0000 UTC. The
cloud top temperatures have been warming, and the precipitation
is comparatively weaker...widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from Nicaragua to 23N in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico between 88W and 97W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from
the Windward Passage westward.

Moderate to fresh winds are in the eastern half of the area.
Gentle to moderate winds, and slower speeds, cover the rest of
the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the
eastern half of the Caribbean Sea, and they range from 1 foot to
3 feet in the western half.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 75W, from Colombia to
Panama, beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate, are from 14N southward from 75W westward.

Central Atlantic Ocean high pressure will support moderate to
fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, and
gentle to moderate winds in the western Caribbean Sea through
Tue. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for
slow development of a trough, currently located in the eastern
Caribbean Sea, during the early or middle part of next week
while it moves generally westward at around 10 kt across the
central and NW Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 34W
westward. The upper level cyclonic wind flow that is in the
eastern half of this space is related to a trough. The upper
level cyclonic wind flow that is in the western half of the area
is related to a cyclonic circulation center.
Three separate surface troughs are in the areas of the upper
level cyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 20N northward from 34W westward. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 34W
eastward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are within 200 nm to 400 nm on either
side of the line 31N13W 23N24W 22N36W 26N52W. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 20N northward from 40W
eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet within 390
nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 30W eastward. The sea
heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 07N southward between
30W and 40W, and from 18N to 20N between 32W and 36W. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area
that is from 50W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to
5 feet from 50W westward.

High pressure will build across the region during the next few
days. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail
over the area through the weekend, and into early next week,
except for moderate to fresh winds between the southeastern
Bahamas and Hispaniola.

$$
mt/ar
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