[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Aug 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W, from 19N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: the
precipitation that is close to the tropical wave also is close
to the monsoon trough. It is possible that the environmental
conditions may support some slow development of this system
through early next week, while it moves westward through the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean from 15 mph to 20
mph.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 20N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: the
precipitation that is close to the tropical wave also is close
to the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The tropical wave left a
surface trough, that is along 61W/62W from 21N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 23N southward
between 57W and 70W. The surface trough is expected to move
westward about 15 mph during the next several day. It is
possible that the environmental conditions may become more
conducive for slow development, when it moves across the central
and western Caribbean Sea by early next week.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 92W/93W from 21N southward, about 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N
southward from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong precipitation is in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 20N97W along the coast of Mexico.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is from 24N northward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 20N16W, to 17N20W 13N30W 12N38W 08N48W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 150 nm to
300 nm on the southern side of the monsoon trough: between 15W
and 18W, between 24W and 28W, and between 33W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 92W/93W from 21N southward, about 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N
southward from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong precipitation is in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 20N97W along the coast of Mexico.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is from 24N northward.

A frontal boundary covers the U.S.A. coastal plains from
southern Georgia, through the Florida Panhandle, to Texas.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are to the north of the line 22N97W
28N83W, and in Florida and the rest of its coastal waters.
Numerous strong is off the coast of NW Cuba, within a 60 nm
radius of 23N85W.

A surface ridge extends from NE Florida, to 29N88W, to the coast
of Mexico near 22N97W. The wind speeds generally are gentle or
weaker. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet.

Weak high pressure will remain in the area through the forecast
period, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of
the Yucatan Peninsula, due to local effects during the late
afternoons and at night through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N77W, just
off the coast of the Bahamas-side of Cuba. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N to 25N between
Haiti and 81W. Other isolated moderate precipitation is from 15N
northward from 80W westward.

Gentle to moderate E to SE trades, and locally fresh, are near
the Guajira Peninsula and near the
A-B-C Islands. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in
the central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 2 feet to
3 feet in the western and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 11N/12N from 73W, beyond Nicaragua,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from
14N southward from 74W westward.

Central Atlantic Ocean high pressure will support moderate to
fresh trade winds in the eastern and central sections of the
Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail in the western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge passes through 31N60W, to 29N75W beyond NE
Florida.

A surface trough is along 31N45W 28N52W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 25N northward between 40W and
50W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N66W.
Precipitation: numerous strong is concentrated in a small
cluster that is about 375 nm to the WNW of the upper level
cyclonic center.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet within 240 nm to the
west of Africa from 21N to 24N, and within 440 nm to the west of
the 21W/22W tropical wave from 03N to 21N. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
Fresh to strong NE winds are from 17N northward from 45W
eastward. Fresh to strong southerly winds are within 540 nm to
the west of the 21W/22W tropical wave from 03N to 12N. Moderate
to fresh winds cover much of the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure will build across the area during the next few
days. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail
through the weekend and into early next week. The exception will
be for moderate to fresh winds between the southeastern Bahamas
and Hispaniola.

$$
mt/ar
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