[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Aug 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is between the west coast of
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands along 20W south of 19N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N-15N east of 26W. This tropical wave
is expected to move westward at about 15 kt during the next
several days, and environmental conditions could become more
conducive for slow development when it moves across the central
and western Caribbean Sea early next week.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W/45W south of 24N,
moving westward around 10 kt. No significant deep convection is
noted in association with this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W south of 23N
to across Puerto Rico and central Venezuela, moving west at around
10 kt. The tropical wave left behind a surface trough extending
from 15N60W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over
the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico, as well as along and offshore
the coast of eastern Venezuela. This tropical wave is expected to
move westward at about 15 kt during the next several days, and
environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow
development when it moves across the central and western Caribbean
Sea early next week.

A tropical wave extending along 92W from the SW Gulf of Mexico
southward to across the border of Guatemala and Mexico and into
the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at around 10 kt. Some
shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring along the coast and
inland over the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania
near 20N17W southwestward to across the Cabo Verde Islands to
14N30W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 10N55W. In
addition to the deep convection noted with the easternmost
tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 13N between 30W and 37W.

The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends east from Costa
Rica near 10N83W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N76W to the coast
of Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted south of 13N in the SW Caribbean Sea.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is draped just inland from the upper
Texas coast through northern Florida.  Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted northwest of a line from the
Florida Panhandle near 30N84W to 26N92W to 25N97W. Aside from
locally higher winds/seas near thunderstorms, winds are generally
gentle or weaker across the entire Gulf with 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain over the area
through the forecast period maintaining gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near
and to the west of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects
during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
a 1010 mb Colombian Low near 10N76W is forcing only gentle to
moderate E to SE trades, locally fresh near the Guajira Peninsula
as well as near the A-B-C Islands. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the
central Caribbean and 2 to 3 ft in the western and eastern
Caribbean. Aside from the convection noted above due to the
eastern Caribbean tropical wave/surface trough and the eastern
Pacific Ocean monsoon trough, isolated to scattered moderate
convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 76W and 85W.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern
and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle
to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean. A
tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms
will move across the eastern Caribbean tonight, and continue
moving across the basin through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores High is located fairly far north of the area
near 41N39W with ridging extending southwestward to 30N67W. The
moderate pressure gradient between the high and the ITCZ/monsoon
trough is forcing generally gentle to moderate NE to E trades
across the tropical North Atlantic north of the ITCZ/monsoon
trough and west of 35W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft west of 70W, and 4 to 6
ft between 35W and 70W. Moderate to fresh trades are found north
of the monsoon trough and east of 35W, locally strong along and
offshore of Morrocco and Western Sahara through the Canary
Islands. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. Equatorward of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough, S to SW winds reach up to fresh to strong
levels between 14W and 35W, with seas of 5 to 8 ft. A surface
trough along 32N69W to 25N73W has moderate to fresh S winds just
east of the trough axis, along with scattered moderate convection
from 25N to 30N between 70W and 75W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extending from
30N71W to 26N73W will continue to slowly move westward through Fri
while it weakens. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
prevail in the vicinity of the trough. Weak high pressure will
build in the wake of the trough through the next few days. The
associated gradient should allow for gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds over the area through the weekend and into early
next week, except for moderate to fresh winds between the
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected over the NW forecast waters during the
weekend as a front stalls and weakens across northern Florida and
adjacent waters. Winds and seas may be higher in and near
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

$$
Lewitsky
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