[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Aug 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W/42W,
south of 20N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 15N to 17N between 39W and 43W. A dry
and dusty Saharan airmass surrounding this wave inhibits the
development of showers and thunderstorms elsewhere.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W/60W,
south of 20N to across Guyana, moving west at around 15 kt. A
1012 mb broad low pressure area is along the tropical wave near
10N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 07N to 15N between 53W and 60W. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for slow development of this system in
several days after it crosses the Windward Islands and moves
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea late this week into
early next week.

A tropical wave that was over the extreme northwestern Caribbean
Sea has shifted inland over central portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula southward into the Eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at
around 10 kt. The convection associated with this tropical wave
is occurring over land and also in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 14N23W to 14N39W to 10N47W to 13N54W to
10N61W near the northeast coast of Venezuela. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is present offshore Africa, from
07N to 14N between 12W and 21W. Similar convection is evident
from 04N to 13N between 23W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico is in the southwestern periphery of a broad
subtropical ridge positioned over the north Atlantic. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the northern Gulf
coast north of 27N due to a weakening frontal boundary just
inland. Similar activity is near SW Florida, northwest of Cuba,
and near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The rest of the
basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Light to locally
moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across
the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area through
the forecast period maintaining gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and
to the west of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during
the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is approaching the eastern Yucatan peninsula.
The diffluent flow that the low provides results in scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over most of the NW Caribbean
Sea. Some showers and thunderstorms are also noted near the coasts
of Nicaragua, Honduras, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. The rest of the
basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are present in
the central Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades
and seas of mainly 1 to 3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern
and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle
to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean. A
tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms
is moving through the Tropical N Atlantic waters. The wave is
expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Thu, then move west
across the basin through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough and accompanying surface trough that extends
from 31N71W to 26N73W are producing an extensive area of showers
and thunderstorms, primarily north of 23N between 65W and the
surface trough axis. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass
indicated that fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring with
in the area described. Seas are 5 to 7 ft there. The rest of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad area of high pressure
positioned between the Azores and Newfoundland, sustaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft are prevalent between 71W and Florida.
Fresh to strong N-NE winds are occurring offshore Morocco,
Western Sahara and the water passages between the Canary Islands,
mainly north of 20N and east of 20W. Seas in the area described
are 5 to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft
prevail across the rest of the tropical Atlantic, except moderate
to fresh southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas south of the monsoon
trough and east of 26W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending from
31N71W to 26N73W will move westward toward the Bahamas through Thu
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds and
seas may be higher in and near scattered showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will build in the wake of the trough
allowing for a gentle to moderate E to SE flow beginning on Thu.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW
forecast waters during the weekend as a front stalls across north-
central Florida and extends northeastward over those waters.

$$
Lewitsky
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