[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Aug 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1705 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W, south of
20N, moving W at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis from 14N to 17N. Otherwise, a dry and dusty Saharan airmass
surrounding this wave inhibits the development of showers and
thunderstorms.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W, south of
20N, moving W at 5-10 kt. This wave is part of a broad trough of
low pressure that is east of the Windward Islands. Isolated to
scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 14N and
between 55W and 62W. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for slow development of this system in several days
while it is forecast to move across the Windward Islands and into
the southeastern Caribbean Sea late this week into early next
week.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 88W, south
of 20N, extending from E Yucatan, across Belize, W Honduras, E El
Salvador and into the E Pacific, and moving W at about 10 kt. The
storm activity associated with this wave is occurring in the E
Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 12N23W to 15N36W to 10N45W to 13N53W to
10N61W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
present over the coast of W Africa, mainly from 09N to 14N and E
of 19N. Similar convection is evident from 05N to 13N and between
21W and 32W. Scattered showers are noted near the monsoon trough
between 48W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico is in the southwestern periphery of a broad
subtropical ridge positioned over the north Atlantic. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the northern Gulf
coast due to a weakening frontal boundary just inland. Most of
the activity is N of 28N and W of 90W. The rest of the basin
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Light to locally
moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the
Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area through
the forecast period maintaining gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and
to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the
late afternoons and at night through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is approaching the eastern Yucatan peninsula.
The diffluent flow that the low provides results in scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over most of the NW Caribbean
Sea. A few showers are also noted near the coast of Nicaragua and
Hispaniola. The rest of the basin enjoys tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-5
ft are present in the central Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trades and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern
and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle
to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean. A
tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms
is moving through the Tropical N Atlantic waters. The wave is
expected to reach the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move west
across the basin through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough and accompanying surface trough that extends
from 31N68W to 25N73W are producing an extensive area of showers
and thunderstorms, primarily N of 24N and between 64W and 71W. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong
S-SE winds are occurring with in the area described. Seas are 4-7
ft. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad area
of high pressure positioned between the Azores and Newfoundland
and sustaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent between 71W
and Florida. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are also occurring off
Morocco, Western Sahara and the water passages between the Canary
Islands, mainly N of 20N and E of 20W. Seas in the area described
are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail
across the rest of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will
move westward toward the Bahamas through Thu accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas may be higher
in and near scattered showers and thunderstorms. Relatively weak
high pressure will build in the wake of the trough allowing for a
gentle to moderate E to SE flow beginning on Thu. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW forecast waters
during the weekend as a front stalls across north- central
Florida and extends northeastward over those waters.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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