[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Aug 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 36W, from 05N to 20N, moving westward
at 5-10 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along the tropical
wave near 14.6N. Scattered showers are from 13N to 17N between 34W
and 40W.

A tropical wave is along 56W, from 04N to 20N, moving westward at
5-10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is in the region of the
monsoon trough from 04N to 10N between 50W and 60W.

A tropical wave is along 84W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5-10
knots. Scattered moderate convection is inland Central America and
in the Nicaragua offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 14N36W to 09N51W to
08N60W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N
to 13N between 20W and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 02N to 11N between 0W and 17W, and from 05N to 13N
between 43W and 61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level trough and abundant moisture inflow from the Caribbean
continue to support scattered showers in the northern-central
Gulf while middle level diffluent flow support scattered showers
across the western Florida coastal waters. A thermal trough coming
off the Yucatan peninsula support heavy showers and tstms over the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient
prevails in the region, which is supporting gentle to locally
moderate return flow and slight seas of 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain over
the area through the forecast period maintaining gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local
effects during the late afternoons and at night through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave moving across Central America is supporting
scattered showers and tstms across the NW Caribbean and Nicaragua
offshore waters while passing isolated showers are elsewhere in
the eastern half of the basin. In terms of winds and seas, light
to gentle variable winds are W of 75W while a slightly tighter
pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a
tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles support moderate to
locally fresh winds with slight seas E of 75W.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue
to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and
central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to
moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores High is the main feature across the Atlantic
subtropical waters, which is supporting generally gentle to
moderate E to SE winds in the central and western Atlantic with
slight to moderate seas. A surface trough weaken the ridge in the
SW N Atlantic waters extending from 19N to 27N along 68W. The
trough is generating heavy showers and tstms from 23N to 30N
between 63W and 69W. Over the far eastern subtropical Atlantic, a
tighter pressure gradient continues to support fresh to strong NE
winds and seas to 8 ft between the Canary Islands and NW Africa.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will move westward
toward the Bahamas through late Wed accompanied by scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas may be higher
in and near scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
will build in the wake of the trough allowing for generally a
gentle to moderate E to SE flow beginning on Wed.

$$
Ramos
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