[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Aug 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1011 mb
low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 14.5N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180
nm of the center in the northwestern quadrant, and within 500 nm
of the center in the southwestern quadrant. Any development of
this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next
several days. The system will be moving westward to
west-northwestward, 10 to 15 mph, through the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: the
precipitation that is close to the tropical wave also is close
to the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: disorganized
isolated moderate to locally strong is between the Windward
Passage and the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 17N16W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that
is near 14.5N along the 36W/37W tropical wave, to 10N50W, to the
coast of Brazil near 08N60W. Precipitation: disorganized widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon trough
southward, and within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough
between 47W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico. The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb,
shows upper level anticyclonic wind flow everywhere in the Gulf
of Mexico.

A frontal boundary is in Texas and Louisiana. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convective precipitation covers the areas
from Texas to Mississippi. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. A weak ridge
runs from the NE corner of the area to the SW corner of the
area. Expect gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow.
The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet.

Relatively weak high pressure will remain in the area through
the forecast period, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and
to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects, during
the late afternoons and at night through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The precipitation that is from 13N northward from 74W westward,
is on the southern side of the NW Caribbean Sea upper level
cyclonic circulation center, that is just to the south of NW
Cuba.

The pressure gradient remains fairly weak in the basin, with
gentle to moderate trade winds throughout the basin. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet.

The monsoon trough is along 11N/12N from 75W, beyond southern
Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: the
precipitation that is close to the monsoon trough also is close
to the 84W/85W tropical wave.

Surface ridging north of the area will continue to support
moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate
winds will continue in the western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 56W westward. The upper level cyclonic circulation center
that was in the same area 24 hours ago continues now near
24N64W. A trough continues from 24N64W to a second and separate
upper level cyclonic circulation center, that is just to the
south of NW Cuba, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A
surface trough is along 68W/70W from 20N to 28N. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 58W and
the surface trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
between the surface trough and Florida. Some of the
precipitation that is to the west of the surface trough is
streaming into the area from the areas that are to the north of
30N, with upper level anticyclonic wind flow, and to the south
of a U.S.A. coastal plains/coastal waters frontal boundary.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward from
40W eastward. Two separate cyclonic circulation centers are in
this area. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 26N northward from 60W eastward.
The Bermuda-Azores High presssure center is the main feature.
This is supporting generally gentle to moderate NE to E winds
and slight to moderate seas. A tighter surface pressure gradient
exists between the high pressure, and low pressure in
northwestern Africa, in order to support fresh to strong NE
winds between the Canary Islands and NW Africa. The sea heights
have been ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet in the area of the fresh
to strong NE winds.

A surface trough located along 68W from 19N to 29N will move
westward toward the Bahamas through late Wed, accompanied by
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The winds and
the seas may be higher in and near scattered showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will build in the wake of the
trough, allowing for generally a gentle to moderate E to SE flow
beginning on Wed.

$$
mt/gr/eb
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