[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Aug 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 23W from
23N southward, through a 1010 mb low over the southeastern Cabo
Verde Islands at 16N23W, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N between
22W and 29W. This wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone
development for the next five days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W from
20N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers
are found from 04N to 09N between 40W and 44W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 74W from
23N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted over the Windward Passage and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, passing through
the aforementioned 1010 mb low at 16N23W to 08N46W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N46W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is
evident up to 130 nm north and 230 nm south of the monsoon trough.
Similar conditions are also present up to 90 nm along either side
of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast of Panama and
nearby Caribbean waters south of 11N between 76W-83W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnants of PTC Four are enhancing scattered moderate
convection N of 25N and W of 96W. Moderate seas prevail in this
area. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed along 83W from
26N-30N with no significant convection at this time. Surface
ridging prevails elsewhere. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to
2 ft are found across the northeastern and east-central Gulf.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the
southeastern and north- central Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh
ENE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the remnants of the PTC Four will continue to
move inland today across NE Mexico and SE Texas. Fresh winds and
seas to 8 ft will dissipate through the day. Weak ridging will
prevail over the Gulf through the forecast period, leading to
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Aided by upper-level lows across the west and north-central
basin, convergent trades are causing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles. A 1021 mb
Bermuda High is sustaining a NE to E trade-wind regime for the
entire basin. Fresh to locally strong ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
are found near the Windward Passage and just south of central
Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are
present over the central and eastern basin, and the Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft
prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue
to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and
central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across the western Caribbean. Fresh to
locally strong NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage
through this morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Surface ridging with axis along 30N prevails across the basin.
The Bermuda High is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2
to 4 ft north of 27N between 45W and the Georgia- Florida coast.
Farther south, gentle to moderate NE trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft
are noted from 10N to 27N between 45W and the Bahamas/Lesser
Antilles. The 1026 mb Azores High is sustaining NNE to NE gentle
to moderate trades and 5 to 7 ft seas north of 17N between the
African coast and 45W, including near the Canary Islands. Gentle
to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in
southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical surface ridge extends
from Bermuda to northern Florida. The ridge will change little
through tonight, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds S of
25N through the remainder of this weekend. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and the approaches of the
Windward Passage through this morning. A weak surface trough will
move westward from 65W to 75W on Mon. The trough will weaken the
ridge, thus diminishing winds to gentle to moderate speeds.

$$
ERA
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