[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Aug 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four remains disorganized. It is
centered near 24.4N 97.3W at 20/2100 UTC or 90 nm S of mouth of
The Rio Grande moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. The forecast track brings this system across
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this evening and tonight.
Some development is possible during the next few hours, but
the chances of this system becoming a tropical cyclone are
decreasing. The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches, along
the northeastern coast of Mexico across the state of Tamaulipas
today. These rains could produce isolated flash flooding across
coastal northeast Mexico. Rainfall amounts of less than an inch
are expected farther to the north across far South Texas. The
combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry
areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland
from the shoreline. Swells generated by this system are forecast
to affect eastern Mexico and southern Texas through early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa along 21W
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms from 10N to
17N between 17W and 25W. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed along
the wave axis near 15N. Environmental conditions are expected to
be marginally conducive for gradual development of this system
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early
to middle part of next week. Currently, this tropical wave has a
low chance of tropical cyclone development over the next five
days.

A tropical wave previously located along 33W is relocated near
40W based on the Tropical Wave Diagnostics. It axis extends from
20N southward. Limited convection is near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is entering the central Caribbean, and extends
along 70W/71W from Dominican Republic to western Venezuela. It is
moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing some convective
activity over Hispaniola and western Puerto Rico as well as over
the eastern Caribbean and parts of Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coast of Mauritania
near 18N16W then continues SW to 11N30W to 08N46W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N46W to the coast of Suriname. Aside from the
convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered
moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 27W and 35W.
Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are E of the
Windward Islands to about 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Four.

The most recent scatterometer data indicate strong to near-gale
force SE winds over the western Gulf in association with Potential
Tropical Cyclone Four. Elsewhere, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow prevails under the influence of the western periphery of
the Bermuda-Azores High that extends across Florida into the
Gulf region. Seas are 6-8 ft over the west-central Gulf based on
a recent altimeter pass. Seas of 3-5 ft are seen elsewhere across
the western Gulf, with seas of 1-3 ft over the eastern half of
Gulf waters, with the exception of 3-4 ft across the Straits of
Florida, and in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move
inland to 26.3N 98.6W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun afternoon.
Maximum seas of about 9 ft will continue into this evening.
Heavy squalls associated with this system will continue over the
far western Gulf through late tonight. Winds and seas will
subside by early Sun. Weak ridging will prevail over the Gulf
early next week, leading to gentle to moderate winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and the
Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean. Mainly moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds prevails elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean,
with gentle to locally moderate winds over the NW Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted across the Windward Passage
based on scatterometer data. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, with
the exception of 5 to 7 ft over the south-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area along with
the passage of a tropical wave currently over the central
Caribbean will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds
in the eastern and central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh to
locally strong NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage
tonight and Sun night. The ridge will weaken Sun night through
Tue, diminishing the winds across the region to gentle to moderate
speeds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlantic remains dominated by the Bermuda-Azores High centered
just over the Azores near 39N29W. A weak surface trough is
analyzed from 30N53W to 24N54W. Scattered showers are near the
trough axis. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates most
of the forecast waters. Winds increase to moderate to fresh
speeds S of 24N between 70W and 76W, including the Windward
Passage. W of 35W, seas are generally 4-6 ft across the Atlantic,
as confirmed by satellite altimeter data. However, seas of 6-8
ft are noted south of the Cabo Verde Islands in a fresh southerly
wind flow.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical surface ridge extends
from Bermuda to central Florida. The ridge will change little
through Sun night, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds S
of 25N through the remainder of this weekend. Fresh to locally
strong winds are likely N of Hispaniola and the approaches of the
Windward Passage tonight and Sun night. A weak surface trough
will move westward from 65W to 75W Mon and Mon night. The trough
will weaken the ridge, thus diminishing winds to gentle to
moderate speeds.

$$
GR
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