[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Aug 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is centered near 21.8N 95.2W at
20/0300 UTC or 270 nm SSE of the mouth of The Rio Grande River
and moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and
seas are peaking at 7 to 10 ft just north and northeast of the
center. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up near
and east of the center, and near Vera Cruz, Mexico. Some
strengthening is expected and this disturbance should become a
tropical storm on Saturday. On the forecast track, the disturbance
is expected to approach the coast of northeastern Mexico through
Saturday afternoon and make landfall there on Saturday night. This
disturbance will likely produce heavy rain at the northeast
corner of Mexico and southern Texas from late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night, which might cause mudslides in mountainous
areas and flash flooding elsewhere. The combination of storm
surge and rising tide will cause coastal inundation. Swells
generated by this system are forecast to affect eastern Mexico and
southern Texas through this weekend, generating life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from northwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands at 19N southward, and moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N
between 27W and 32W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W from 21N southward
across Puerto Rico into eastern Venezuela, and moving west at 20
to 25 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring over Venezuela, scattered showers are seen near and
north of Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast just north
of the Mauritania-Senegal border, passing southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands at 11N26W to northeast of French Guiana near
09N48W. Other than convection associated with a nearby tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is seen up to 150 nm south and
up to 100 nm north of the trough. Numerous showers are present
farther south near the coast of Guinea-Bissau, Guinea and Sierra
Leone. No ITCZ is present based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.

A modest surface ridge reaches westward from central Florida to
near Brownsville, Texas. It is sustaining light to gentle winds
and seas at 1 to 2 ft over the northeastern and east- central
Gulf. Outside the influence of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move to
23.2N 96.3W Sat morning, 25.1N 97.6W Sat evening, inland to 26.9N
99.1W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening. Heavy rains and
tstms are expected over the SW and far NW Gulf over the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aided by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, convergent trades
are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near
and south of the Yucatan Channel, and from the Cayman Islands
eastward to near Haiti. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
additional weather in the basin.

The Atlantic ridge associated with a 1028 mb Azores High continues
to channel NE to E trades across the entire basin. Fresh to
strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident for the
south- central basin, just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
ENE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are found over the northwestern
and extreme southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds
and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin,
including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the passage of a tropical wave currently at the
eastern basin along with the Atlantic ridge will continue to
support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central
Caribbean, and fresh to strong winds in the south-central and
portions of the SW Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds
are also expected across the Windward Passage tonight and Sat
night. The ridge will weaken Sun night through Tue, diminishing
the winds across the region to gentle to moderate.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is causing isolated thunderstorms near and just
east of the Lesser Antilles. A robust upper-level low at the
north-central Atlantic near 30N48W is triggering scattered
showers and thunderstorms north of 27N between 46W and 50W. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

The Atlantic ridge related to the 1028 mb Azores High is
supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft north of
26N between 50W and the Georgia/Florida coast. Farther south and
east, gentle to moderate NNE to ENE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are
evident from 10N to 26N between 30W and the Bahamas/Lesser
Antilles, and north of 25N between the African coast and 50W.
Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with 5 to 8 ft
seas in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge together with a
tropical wave crossing the eastern and central Caribbean will
support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N through the
weekend. Locally strong winds are likely north of Hispaniola and
the approaches to the Windward Passage tonight and Sat night. The
ridge will weaken Sun evening into early next week, thus
diminishing these winds to gentle to moderate.

$$

Chan
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