[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Aug 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, along 93W from 22N southward, passing through the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. A 1011 mb low pressure center is along the
tropical wave near 19.6N. Precipitation: numerous strong is
within 150 nm of the center in the northwest quadrant. Other
isolated moderate is elsewhere from 26N southward from the
Yucatan Channel westward. Fresh to strong wind speeds are within
60 nm on either side of the tropical wave. The sea heights were
ranging from 2 feet to 3 feet earlier, in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. Expect those sea heights to increase with time.
The overall precipitation pattern is becoming organized. The
environmental conditions appear to be favorable for more
development. It is possible that a tropical depression may form
later today or on Saturday, while the system moves
northwestward, through the southwestern and western Gulf of
Mexico. The system is expected to move inland into northeastern
Mexico, by Saturday night, ending its chances of development. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon. You should monitor the
progress of this system, if you have interests along the
northeastern coast of Mexico and in the lower Texas coast. It is
possible that this system may bring locally heavy rains to parts
of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas during the weekend.
The chance of development into a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours is medium. Please, refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: the
precipitation that is close to the tropical wave also is close
to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 480 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 240
nm to the west of the tropical wave from 17N to 22N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 20N16W, to 17N20W 10N30W 08N40W 08N47W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N47W, to 10N56W. Precipitation: disorganized
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon
trough/ITCZ southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas of the
Atlantic Ocean that are from 20N northward from 73W westward, in
the Gulf of Mexico and in Florida from 27N southward from the
Yucatan Channel eastward, and in the Caribbean Sea from the
Windward Passage westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 90W eastward, elsewhere, away from the precipitation that
may be related to the 1011 mb developing low pressure center.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is inland, in Texas, near 27N97W.
A surface trough is in the coastal plains of Texas, from the low
pressure center, northeastward. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous moderate to strong is in the coastal waters/coastal
plains of Texas from 94W westward. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 27N northward, from 94W eastward.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. Expect light to
gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 2 feet,
away from the area of the SW corner and the tropical wave and
1011 mb developing low pressure center.

Numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms are in the Bay of
Campeche associated with a broad low pressure area. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a
tropical depression could form later today or on Saturday while
the system moves NW across the SW and W Gulf of Mexico. However,
by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over
NE Mexico, which will end its chances of development. Regardless
of development, this system could bring locally heavy rains to
portions of NE Mexico and S Texas over the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas of the
Atlantic Ocean that are from 20N northward from 73W westward, in
the Gulf of Mexico and in Florida from 27N southward from the
Yucatan Channel eastward, and in the Caribbean Sea from the
Windward Passage westward. Upper level easterly wind flow, and
comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery,
cover the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N northward
between 63W and 80W. Isolated moderate is from 12N northward
from 80W westward.

Moderate to fresh wind speeds span the Caribbean Sea, in
general. Fresh to locally strong NE winds, and sea heights that
range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are within 120 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 74W and 80W. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 5 feet, elsewhere, from Jamaica southward from Central
America eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia,
and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 12N southward from 77W
westward.

Surface ridging from the Azores-Bermuda High extending
to the northern Caribbean along with the passage of a tropical
wave entering the eastern basin today will continue to support
moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central
Caribbean, and fresh to strong winds in the south-central and
portions of the SW Caribbean through Sat. The ridge will weaken
Sun night through Tue, diminishing the winds across the region to
gentle to moderate speeds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas of the
Atlantic Ocean that are from 20N northward from 73W westward, in
the Gulf of Mexico and in Florida from 27N southward from the
Yucatan Channel eastward, and in the Caribbean Sea from the
Windward Passage westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
from 20N northward from 70W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is between
60W and 70W. No significant deep convective precipitation is in
this area.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers much of the area that is
from 20N northward between 40W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from 23N northward between 40W and 53W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 27N northward from 30W
eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor
imagery is from 20N northward from 42W eastward.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 10N southward
between 20W and 30W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7
feet, elsewhere, from 10N southward from 30W eastward. The sea
heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 19N northward from 25W
eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet between
25W and 50W. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh winds are to
the south and southeast of the line 26N70W 26N47W 31N35W. Wind
speeds that are slower than moderate are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. The comparatively fastest wind speeds are from
21N to 23N from 20W eastward.

Surface ridging extending from the Azores-Bermuda
High across the region along with the passage of a tropical wave
across the eastern and central Caribbean will support moderate to
fresh easterly winds S of 25N through Sun morning. The ridge will
weaken Sun evening into early next week, thus diminishing these
winds to gentle to moderate speeds.

$$
mt
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