[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Aug 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 24W, from 19N
southward, moving westward at 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 22W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 54W, from 19N
southward, moving westward at 15 knots to 20 knots. Isolated
moderate showers are found from 08N to 10N between 52W and 56W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 89W/90W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted across the Yucatan Peninsula and its
surrounding waters. This system is forecast to emerge into the
Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure could
form. After that, additional slow development of this system is
possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By Saturday night, the system is expected to move
inland over northeastern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 14N17W to 09N27W to 12N42W. The ITCZ continues from 12N342W
to 12N52W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate convection is found from 04N to 09N
between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered near 23N86W. A cold front extends from
The Florida Big Bend to Louisiana. Active convection is over the
northern Gulf in the vicinity of the front. Light winds are in
the vicinity of the high with light to gentle winds elsewhere.
Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will drift ESE and
dissipate tonight. The cold front will exit the NE Gulf this
evening, however shower activity associated with it will linger
through Fri. Otherwise, a tropical wave over Guatemala is
forecast to move across southeastern Mexico through tonight
before emerging over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, where an area
of low pressure could form. After that, additional slow
development of this system is possible while it moves NW over the
SW Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. Regardless of
development, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected across
the SW and west-central gulf this evening through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge of high pressure extends north of the area. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and climatological low pressure over
Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean,
3-5 ft over the north central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging building N of the region will
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Sat, then gradually weaken through
Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 26N67W to 19N67W. High pressure
ridging dominates the remainder of the waters north of 20N.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the discussion waters.
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west of 60W as well as north of 24N
between 45W and 60W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging building from the
Azores high to the Bahamas is expected to gradually shift
northward to along 30N through Sat, then N of the area by Mon
night. A frontal boundary over the NE Florida offshore waters
will lift northward. Otherwise, moderate to fresh easterly winds
are forecast S of 25N Thu through Sun.

$$
AL
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