[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Aug 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from just east of
the Cabo Verde Islands at 19N southward, and moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 12N between 18W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51-52W from 20N
southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. A very broad low to
middle level trough associated with this feature can be
seen in satellite imagery, extending between 44W and 62W. A low
level vortex can also be seen trailing the wave axis, centered
near 13N46W, accompanied by isolated moderate convection within
90 nm. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 05N
to 10N between 42W and 55W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from 22N southward
across the Gulf of Honduras, Central America and into the eastern
Pacific ocean, moving west near 10 kt. Satellite imagery earlier
tonight suggested low level cyclonic turning over Belize, where
numerous strong thunderstorms are occurring over Belize and the
western Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen elsewhere from 16N to 22N between 83W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near 19N16W, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands at 14N24W to
10.5N46W. Other than convection associated with the tropical waves
described above, scattered moderated convection is present from
02N to 08N between 29W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across northern Gulf
coastal plains, along and to the south of a stationary front
extending from southeast Georgia to central Texas. Otherwise, a
1015 mb high over the east-central Gulf near 27N87W is providing
light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas for the east-central,
southeastern and north- central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to WSW
winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are evident for the northwestern,
west-central and northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE winds
and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the high pressure centered over the N central
will drift ESE and dissipate tonight, leaving a weak ridge there
through the weekend. The stalled front will linger today,
supporting scattered showers and tstms across the northern coastal
waters through Fri. Otherwise, a tropical wave over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across Central
America and the Yucatan Peninsula today, and emerge over the Bay
of Campeche Thu night, where an area of low pressure could form on
Friday. Some gradual development of this system is possible while
it moves NW over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the
weekend. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh winds are
expected across the SW and west-central gulf Thu evening through
Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores
High to 32N58W and then weakly SW to the central Bahamas. This
pressure gradient is sustaining gentle to moderate trade winds
across the most of the basin, except for strong winds offshore of
NE Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, and fresh winds across
interior portions of the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 6 to 8 ft
prevail over the south-central basin, just north of Colombia,
while seas of 4 to 6 ft continue across the central basin and Gulf
of Honduras. Lingering low to middle level troughing from the
Mona Passage NE into the Atlantic is leading to scattered showers
and moderate thunderstorms across the NE Caribbean north of 15N
between 64W and 70W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, Saharan Air
has moved across much of the basin E of 82W, and is yielding fair
weather.

For the forecast, the tropical wave across the Gulf of Honduras
will continue to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the NW portions of basin today, with this active weather
expected to gradually shift westward with the tropical wave
through Thu night, as the wave moves across Central America and
the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface ridging building N of the region
will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
today through Sat, then gradually weaken through Mon. A broad
tropical wave will move across the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu
night, across the eastern Caribbean Fri, and the central Caribbean
Fri night and Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Short lines of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue off
the northern Florida coast and southwest of Bermuda this morning,
to the southeast of a stationary front extending east-
northeastward from the Florida-Georgia border. As mentioned above,
a lingering low to middle level trough from the Mona Passage to
25N63W is producing low level convergence leading to scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms from the northern coastal waters
of Puerto Rico to the waters of the Dominican Republic near 70W.
Elsewhere, the Azores high dominates the remainder of the Tropical
Atlantic with a modest ridge, with two weak troughs interrupting
the ridge along 36W and 44W.

The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting light to
gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft north of 23N between 55W and
the Florida coast/Bahamas, except moderate SW winds and 3 to 4 ft
seas north of 27N between 65W and 75W to the south of the
aforementioned front. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas
of 4 to 7 ft are noted farther east, north of 14N between 25W and
55W; and also farther south from 11N to 23N between 25W and the
Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE
trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are present north of 17N between the
northwest African coast and 25W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and
southerly winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge has begun to build
from the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas overnight, and is
expected to gradually shift northward to along 30N through Sat,
then N of the area by Mon night. The stalled frontal boundary
near the NE Florida waters along 31N will linger across the region
today then lift northward. Active weather N of 26N between
Florida and 68W will persist through tonight. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh easterly winds are forecast S of 25N Thu through Sun as
the broad central Atlantic tropical wave moves across the eastern
and central Caribbean.

$$
Stripling
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