[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Aug 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2050 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 19W/20W, from
20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N
to 14N between 11W and 24W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 49W, from 21N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Isolated
showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis south of 10N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 86W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate isolates strong convection is noted from 15N to 21N
between 80W and 90W. This tropical wave is forecast to move
across Central America during the next couple of days and emerge
over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could
form on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is
possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico through the weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 17N17W to 09N29W to 09N36W. The ITCZ continues from
09N36W to 10N46W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical
waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from
01N to 09N between 30W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 26N92W. Light winds
are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to locally
moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over
the SW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will drift ESE to
the north-central Gulf before dissipating tonight. A stalled
front along southern Georgia and Alabama will linger in this area
through Thu, supporting scattered showers and tstms in the NE
basin through Thu night and moderate SW to W winds through
tonight. Otherwise, a tropical wave over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across Central America during
the next couple of days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche,
where an area of low pressure could form on Friday. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves NW over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. Regardless of
development, moderate to fresh winds are expected across the SW
and west-central gulf Thu through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the central Caribbean,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft
range in the central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging building N of the region is
supporting generally gentle to moderate trade winds across much
of the basin, except for fresh winds in the south-central
Caribbean. The ridge will strengthen modestly behind the exiting
tropical wave and fresh to strong trade winds will return to the
south-central basin at night tonight through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the discussion
waters, except fresh to locally strong north of 20N and east of
30W. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range north of 20N and west of 50W,
and 4-6 ft elsewhere west of 30W. East of 30W, seas of 5-8 ft
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging building across the
SW N Atlantic offshore waters is expected to prevail through Mon
night. A stalled frontal boundary near the NE Florida waters
will linger across the region through Thu, which will maintain
active weather N of 26N between Florida and 63W. Moderate SW
winds ahead of the front and across the north-central offshore
waters will diminish on Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
easterly winds are forecast S of 25N Thu through Sun.

$$
AL
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