[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Aug 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 27W, south of
21N, moving W at 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with
this feature.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends has its axis near 41W,
south of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is
associated with this wave.

An central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 72W, south of
20N, moving W at 15 kts. The northern portion of the wave is
enhancing the development of showers and thunderstorms over
Hispaniola. No deep convection near the trough axis in the
Caribbean Sea.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 80W, south of
19N, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated strong
convection is observed south of 14N and between 77W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N30W to 07N49W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N49W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
noted from 04N to 10N and E of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure regime dominates the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining
fairly tranquil weather conditions. The exception are
thunderstorms that developed earlier this evening in western
Yucatan are moving into the eastern Bay of Campeche waters.
Moderate to locally strong E-SE winds are found in the Bay of
Campeche and western Gulf, along with seas of 3-4 ft. Meanwhile,
light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft are evident
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, a 1015 high pressure is centered near 28N90W and
will settle across the E central Gulf tonight through Thu. A
front will sink S and settle north of the northern Gulf Tue
night and linger in this area through Thu. This will increase
winds across the northeast and north-central Gulf with moderate
southerly winds. Moderate NE to E winds north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons
and evenings through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside for the convection in the SW Caribbean Sea discussed in the
Tropical Waves section, the remainder of the basin enjoys fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A weak high pressure regime also
dominates the Caribbean, supporting moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds across the central and SE portions of the basin and
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere,
light to gentle trades and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure resides across the W Atlc to
the north of Puerto Rico along 26N and is supporting moderate to
locally fresh trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. A
broad trough associated with a tropical wave is moving westward
across the eastern Caribbean and will reach 75W tonight. The
tropical wave will continue moving westward across the western
basin Tue through Wed night. High pressure will strengthen
modestly to the north of the region behind the tropical wave Tue
night through Fri. This will help produce fresh to strong trades
across the south-central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge positioned north of the Azores. Over the western
tropical Atlantic, a weak surface trough extends from 31N74W to
central Florida and a few showers are noted near the trough axis.
Divergence aloft is also sustaining scattered moderate convection
N of 27N and between 66W and 73W. A couple of weak surface troughs
are located north and northeast of the Leeward Islands, generating
a few weak showers. Moderate to locally fresh E-NE winds are
prevalent between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in these
waters are 4-6 ft. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are evident on
recent scatterometer satellite data N of 18N and E of 25W, with
the strongest winds off NW Mauritania, Western Sahara and the
waters surrounding the Canary Islands. Seas in this portion of the
Atlantic are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weakening frontal trough extends from
31N74W to central Florida near 27.5N81W. The trough will drift
ESE and dissipate Tue. Another frontal boundary will approach the
NE Florida waters Tue night and linger across the region through
Thu, which will maintain active weather N of 28N and E of the
boundary through midweek. A broad surface trough extending from
28N64W to Puerto Rico is interrupting the weak Atlantic ridge.
Active thunderstorms occurring E of this trough will persist
through Tue as the trough drifts westward. High pressure will
reestablish along 25-27N Wed through Fri.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net