[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Aug 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 36W, from 06N to 19N, moving westward
at 10-15 knots. There is a 1010 mb low pressure associated with
this wave near 13N36W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N
to 17N between 34W and 45W. Upper- level winds are expected to
become increasingly unfavorable for development during the next
couple of days while the system moves generally west-
northwestward

A tropical wave is along 52W, from 05N to 19N, moving westward
at 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 07N to 16N between 46W and
54W.

A tropical wave is near 66W, S of 20N, moving westward at 10
knots. Scattered to isolated showers are from 13N to 19N between
60W and 70W.

A tropical wave is inland the Yucatan peninsula, Guatemala and
into the E Pacific waters. Isolated showers associated with this
wave are in the far NW Caribbean and in the Bay of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to a 1010 mb low near
13N36W to 12N49W. Aside the convection associated with the
tropical waves, numerous moderate to strong convection is from 08N
to 13N between 12W and 18W, and from 06N to 11N between 23W and
29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave moving across the Yucatan peninsula, Guatemala
and into the E Pacific waters is generating scattered showers in
the Bay of Campeche. Moisture inflow from the Caribbean by low-
level southerly flow along with middle-level divergent flow in
the NE basin is supporting scattered showers and tstms in that
region. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the gulf
supporting gentle to moderate return flow with slight seas.

For the forecast, Atlantic surface ridging will be the dominant
feature across the basin through Fri. This will result in mainly
gentle to moderate return flow. By Sat, the ridge will weaken, and
winds will become light to gentle through early next week. Winds
will also pulse moderate to locally fresh in the evenings off the
NW Yucatan peninsula through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave crossing the Yucatan peninsula and Guatemala is
supporting isolated showers in the far NW Caribbean while a second
tropical wave in the eastern basin generates similar convective
activity in the NE Caribbean. The Bermuda High extends a ridge to
the northern basin and continue to support moderate to fresh trade
winds basin-wide. Seas are slight to moderate with a maximum of 7
ft in the SW Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, high pressure centered E of Bermuda will remain
nearly stationary through today before weakening. This will
maintain mainly fresh easterly winds across the central and SW
Caribbean through tonight as a tropical wave also moves across
this region of the basin. Winds will reach gentle to moderate
speeds basin-wide on Fri, prevailing through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging centered E of Bermuda
and extending across the region will weaken today, thus
maintaining mainly fresh easterly winds S of of 25N. Afterward,
winds will reach moderate speeds, which will continue through Sat.
Light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere through
this period. Otherwise, a tropical wave will reach the SE offshore
waters by Sat, which will bring a slight increase in winds and
seas over that region through early on Mon.

$$
Ramos
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