[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Aug 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on the 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1010 mb
low pressure center is along the wave near 13N. Precipitation:
disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 720 nm of the center in the western quadrant. The upper
level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for
development during the next couple of days, while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward 15 to 20 mph in the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 20N
southward, moving westward about 10 kt. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either side of the
tropical wave from 08N to 18N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 20N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm on either side of the
tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W from 20N southward,
moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. This wave touches the
Yucatan Peninsula, the NW Caribbean Sea, Honduras, and southward
into parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the west
of the tropical wave from 12N to 21N, including in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is between 80W and the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 15N17W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 13N
along the 35W/36W tropical wave, to 12N49W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 10N between 24W and
27W, and in the coastal plains/the coastal waters of Africa from
09N to 12N between 13W and 15W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere from 06N to 10N between 23W and 31W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N to 10N between
Africa and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 700 mb shows an inverted trough in the western
half of the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 250 mb in the same
area is showing anticyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 26N southward from 90W
westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong also is in the
eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, between the Atlantic Ocean-
Florida Panhandle upper level cyclonic wind flow, and the GFS 700
mb inverted trough.

An inland Texas surface trough is in east central Texas and
central Texas. Earlier numerous strong convective precipitation
was in Texas from 29N to 31N between its border with Louisiana and
98W. That precipitation has been weakening since 11/0100 UTC. Some
of the remnant clouds and precipitation now are in parts of the NW
Gulf of Mexico from 28N northward from 93W westward

A weak surface ridge extends from SW Georgia, through the central
Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W.

Fresh winds are in the Straits of Florida/the SE Gulf of Mexico
from 85W eastward. Moderate wind speeds or slower are elsewhere.
The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet.

A tropical wave moving across Belize, Honduras into the E Pacific
waters is generating heavy showers and thunderstorms in the
Yucatan peninsula and immediate offshore waters in the Bay of
Campeche. Atlantic surface ridging will be the dominant feature
across the basin through Fri. This will result in mainly gentle to
moderate return flow. By Sat, the ridge will weaken, and winds
will become light to gentle through early next week. Winds will
also pulse moderate to locally fresh in the evenings off the
northwest Yucatan through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is to the north of the area. The pressure gradient
between the area of high pressure, and comparatively lower surface
pressures in Colombia, support fresh to strong winds in the
central Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere.
The sea heights range from: 6 feet to 9 feet in the central
Caribbean Sea; and from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, through Panama,
beyond western Panama/southern Costa Rica, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 90 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough between 75W and 79W.

High pressure centered E of Bermuda will remain nearly stationary
through Thu before weakening. This will maintain mainly fresh
easterly winds across the central and SW Caribbean through Thu
night as a tropical wave also moves across this region of the
basin. Locally strong winds are still likely along the coast of
Colombia tonight. Winds will reach gentle to moderate speeds
basin-wide on Fri, prevailing through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N73W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow is from the Windward Passage northward
between 67W and the Florida Panhandle.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 26N northward between 42W
and 62W. A surface trough is from 31N northward between 49W and
55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward from
the line 31N41W 20N55W westward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 30N northward from
30W eastward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward.

Strong northerly winds are within 210 nm of the coast of Africa
from 18N to 23N. Moderate to locally fresh winds are from 20N
southward from 60W westward; and from 20N northward from 45W
eastward. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of 20N. The
sea heights range from: 3 feet to 5 feet from 20N northward
reaching near 5 feet from 40W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds,
and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 5 feet are in the
tropical waters from 20N southward.

Surface ridging centered E of Bermuda and extending across the
region will weaken on Thu, thus maintaining mainly fresh easterly
winds S of of 25N. Afterward, winds will reach moderate speeds,
which will continue through Sat. Light to gentle variable winds
are expected elsewhere through this period. Otherwise, a tropical
wave will reach the SE offshore waters by Sat with a slight
increase in winds and seas over that region through early on Mon.

$$
MT
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