[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Aug 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 20N
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure
center is along the wave near 12N. Precipitation: disorganized widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm of the
center in the western semicircle, and within 400 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere within 480 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between
the tropical wave and 42W. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days. The environmental
conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend.
This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward
15 to 20 mph through the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the next
several days.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 20N southward,
moving west about 15 kt. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 75 nm to the south of the monsoon trough
between 43W and 48W.

A tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from 20N southward, moving
westward from 15 knots to 20 knots, moving toward the eastern
Caribbean Sea islands. No significant deep convective
precipitation is near this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 21N southward,
moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 19N in the
Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Gulf of Mexico between 80W and 86W,
and from 16N southward between 80W and Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 15N17W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 12N
along the 31w/32W tropical wave, to 13N39W 12N46W 12N52W. The
ITCZ continues from 12N52W to 13N59W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is
from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the SE Gulf of Mexico, near
the Yucatan Channel, from 27N southward from 90W eastward.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong is from 28N southward from 90W eastward. Similar
precipitation is from 19N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Gulf
of Mexico between 80W and 86W. This precipitation is related to a
Caribbean Sea 82W/83W tropical wave, from 21N southward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, and weakening
with time, is from 90W westward.

Gentle to moderate winds are in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the SE Gulf of Mexico,
and from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere.

A middle-level inverted trough is enhancing scattered moderate
convection across the eastern half of the basin, including the
Florida Straits. This activity will enhance winds and seas in the
area. The Atlantic surface ridge extending SW into the western
gulf will weaken late Wed. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
expected across the Florida Straits and portions of the SE Gulf
through Wed. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and slight seas
will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Near gale-force winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 73W and 76W. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere within
300 nm of the coast of Colombia between 70W and 80W. Moderate to
fresh winds are in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate
winds are in the western Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range:
from 7 feet to 9 feet in the central Caribbean Sea, from 4 feet to
6 feet in the eastern Caribbean Sea, and from 3 feet to 5 feet in
the western Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 72W in NW Venezuela
beyond the northern half of Costa Rica, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 300 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough between Lake Maracaibo in NW
Venezuela, and in parts of Colombia and Panama, and 80W.

High pressure centered just NE of Bermuda will remain nearly
stationary through Wed before shifting W and weakening. Fresh to
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will continue
through Wed then gradually diminish to fresh through Thu night.
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean with axis near 83W is
enhancing convection in the area. The wave will continue moving W
across the remainder basin through Wed. Another tropical wave will
enter the eastern Caribbean on Wed enhancing winds/seas. Gentle
to moderate trade winds will prevail from Thu through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves along 31N50W 29N53W 26N54W 22N57W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300
nm to the northwest of the surface trough from 28N northward from
60W eastward, and elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of the
surface trough. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is to the east of the 31N50W
22N57W surface trough from 20N northward.

A surface trough passes through a 1023 mb high pressure center
that is near 33N60W, to 29N80W off the coast of NE Florida.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds are from Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward Passage northward. Moderate to fresh
winds are elsewhere south of 22N from 65W westward. Light to
gentle winds generally are from 20N northward from 40W westward.
Fresh to locally strong winds are from 20N northward from 40W
eastward. Gentle to moderate winds are from 20N southward. The
sea heights range: from 2 feet to 4 feet from 28N northward from
40W westward, and from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

Surface ridging will remain centered just NE of Bermuda and
dominate the forecast region through Wed before weakening. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the
approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons
and overnight hours through Wed night.

$$
mt/nr
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