[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 22W, south
of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 08N to 15N and between 20W
and 30W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development over the next several days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. A tropical depression could form
by the middle to latter portion of this week before environmental
conditions become less favorable by this weekend. The current
outlook gives the disturbance has a medium chance of development
during the next 5 days.

An tropical wave has its axis near 38W, south of 20N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to
14N and between 35W and 41W.

An tropical wave has its axis near 51W, south of 19N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to
12N between 50W and 55W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 75W, south of 21N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 19N
between 70W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 15N22W to 15N31W to 09N54W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N54W to 09N61W. Aside from convection discussed on
the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 13N between 30W and 35W, and from 09N to 13N
between 41W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Active convection is ongoing over much of the Gulf of Mexico,
with two surface troughs in the Gulf noted. The first trough
extends from the Florida panhandle to 25N87W, while the second
trough extends from 26N93W to the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
locally moderate winds prevail across the Gulf basin. Seas are
in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, a nearly stationary upper-level low over the
SW Gulf will maintain active weather across the W Gulf tonight.
Otherwise the Atlantic surface ridge will extend W along about
31N through late Wed before weakening W of 90W. Fresh NE to E
winds will briefly pulse to strong in the eastern Bay of Campeche
Tue night and Wed night. A mid to upper-level trough from the
Florida Big Bend southward along the W coast of Florida will
shift slowly W through Tue night and to the north- central and NW
Gulf Wed through Fri, enhancing showers and thunderstorms across
those sections of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades are noted over the central Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate winds over the remainder of the Caribbean
waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean,
and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure centered just NE of Bermuda will
remain nearly stationary through early Wed before shifting WSW
and weakening. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central
Caribbean will continue through Wed then gradually diminish to
fresh through Thu night. A tropical wave across the central
Caribbean accompanied by squalls and active weather will continue
moving westward across the remainder of the basin through Wed.
Active weather will accompany another tropical wave entering the
tropical N Atlc waters late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 32N75W to 27N78W. Scattered showers
are in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to locally moderate
winds and seas of 2-3 ft are noted in the vicinity of the trough.
Farther east, a surface trough extends from 32N39W to 23N49W.
Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of this trough. High
pressure prevails elsewhere across the discussion waters. Fresh
to strong winds are noted north of Hispaniola and the approaches
to the Windward passage, with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 6-7 ft are elsewhere south of 24N and west of
65W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere
across the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will remain
centered just NE of Bermuda and dominate the forecast region
through early Wed before shifting WSW and weakening. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail S of 25N through early Wed before
diminishing. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola
and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late
afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. The surface
trough extending from 32N75W to 27N78W and will drift W and
inland through Tue.

$$
AL
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