[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Aug 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has it axis along 27W from 05N
to 22N moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
increasing near the southern portion of the wave within 180 nm
west and 120 nm east of the wave axis from 07N to 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W from 04N
to 21N moving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm either side of the wave axis from 07N to 09N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 64W from
04N to 20N. It is moving westward at 20 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave. Only isolated quick westward
moving showers are north of 14N and east of 68W.

Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is along and
offshore the coast Africa from 08N to 14N between 14W-17W. This
activity precedes the next tropical wave that will likely emerge
off the African coast today.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Senegal near 13N16W to 11N25W
to 10N35W and to 10N45W. The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 06N57W.
Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of
the trough between 30W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough axis between 38W-45W,
and within 30 north of the monsoon trough between 48W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 23N to 28N between 88W-92W.
A small mid to upper-level low is seen on satellite water vapor
imagery to be just west of the western tip of Cuba near 23N86W.
An inverted trough extends from the low north to 30N86W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms moving westward cover a good portion of
the eastern Gulf, and are also over the waters between Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, weak high pressure ridging
over the northern Gulf is producing moderate to fresh easterly
winds in the central and southern Gulf along with moderate
southeast winds in the northern Gulf. Light and variable winds are
in the NE Gulf, where the gradient is the lightest. Seas are
generally in the 3-5 ft range, with lower seas of 1-3 ft in the NE
Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure ridging over the
northern Gulf will continue through the next few days maintaining
generally gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Fresh NE to E
winds will briefly pulse during the evening hours tonight and Sat
night west of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight due to a diurnal
trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms generated by
a mid-level trough over the central Gulf are spreading west-
southwestward over the central Gulf waters, and over portions of
the NW Gulf. This activity is expected to continue through Fri.
Similar activity over the eastern and south-central Gulf will
moves westward as the mid to upper-level low near 23N86W tracks
westward as well. Winds and seas may be higher in and near
showers and thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection over the
southwestern Caribbean south of 14N and west of 78W. Similar
convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 80W and the coasts
of northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua. The gradient between
subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the southwestern
Caribbean is supporting fresh to enhanced easterlies throughout
the majority of the basin. Winds are fresh in the eastern basin
with 4-6 ft seas, fresh to strong in the central basin with 6-8 ft
seas and gentle to moderate in the NW basin with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean will continue through Tue night. Winds will
freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the northwestern
Caribbean into early next week. Fresh to locally strong winds are
forecast in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A nearly stationary large upper-level low is identified on
satellite water vapor imagery to be near 30N68W. It has induced a
surface trough that is analyzed from near 31N69W to 29N72W and
to 27N74W. During the past few hours numerous moderate convection
has increased in relation to these features from 27N to 31N
between 67W-72W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen from
28N to 31N between 64W-67W and from 27N to 31N east of 64W to 53W.
Similar activity moving westward is over the waters west of about
70W, including the Straits of Florida where the activity also
consists of scattered thunderstorms and becomes scattered in
coverage as it moves west-northwestward.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by subtropical high
pressure centered to the NE of Bermuda. In the western Atlantic,
easterly winds are moderate north of 25N with 3-5 ft seas and
fresh south of 25N with 4-6 ft seas. Easterly winds are generally
moderate to fresh throughout the central Atlantic with 4-6 ft
seas. In the eastern Atlantic, low pressure over NW Africa is
creating a tighter gradient and stronger winds. Northeast winds
are mainly of fresh speeds, with latest ASCAT data indicating
strong gap winds near the Canary Islands. Seas are 6-8 ft in the
region.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure north of the area
will change little through early next week. Gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds and slight to moderate seas will remain
over most of the area through early next week. The aforementioned
large upper-level low will track from E to W across the northern
waters through the weekend attendant by scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north
of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage
during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Tue night.

$$
Aguirre
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