[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050400
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Aug 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W, from 06N to
22N, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 11N, between 22W and 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 44W, from 04N to
21N, moving west at 20 kt. Convection is isolated and weak near
the southern portion of the wave.

A tropical wave previously in the western Atlantic has been
relocated farther west into the eastern Caribbean based on 00 UTC
surface and upper air observations from the Lesser Antilles. It is
currently analyzed along 62W, from 05N to 19N, moving west at 20
kt. No significant convection is observed near the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 21N16W to 10N41W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to 08N59W, along the coast of
Guyana. Scattered weak convection is noted south of the monsoon
trough axis from 07N to 10N, between 27W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 23N to 29N, between the coast
of Florida and 95W. These thunderstorms are gradually shifting
westward and weakening. At the surface, weak ridging over the
northern Gulf is producing moderate to fresh easterly winds in
the central and southern Gulf, with moderate SE winds in the
northern Gulf. A high pressure center is analyzed in the far NE
Gulf, where winds are light and variable. Seas are generally 3-5
ft, with 1-3 ft in the NE portion of the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas into
early next week. Fresh NE to E winds will briefly pulse during the
evening hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and again
Fri night due to a diurnal trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms generated by a mid-level trough over the central
Gulf are spreading west-southwestward the central Gulf waters, and
over portions of the NW Gulf. This activity is expected to
continue through Fri. Winds and seas may be higher in and near
showers and thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous moderate convection over the southwest Caribbean waters
south of 14N and west of 78W. The gradient between subtropical
high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting
fresh to enhanced easterlies throughout the majority of the
basin. Winds are fresh in the eastern basin with 4-6 ft seas,
fresh to strong in the central basin with 6-8 ft seas and gentle
to moderate in the NW basin with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected over
the south-central Caribbean mainly at night through Mon night.
Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle
to moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the
northwestern Caribbean into early next week. Fresh to locally
strong winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night
through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low above the western subtropical Atlantic is
supporting a surface trough NE of the Bahamas with isolated
moderate convection west of 65W. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by subtropical high pressure centered NE of Bermuda. In
the western Atlantic, easterly winds are moderate north of 25N
with 3-5 ft seas and fresh south of 25N with 4-6 ft seas. Easterly
winds are generally moderate to fresh throughout the central
Atlantic with 4-6 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, low pressure
over NW Africa is creating a tighter gradient and stronger winds.
NE winds are generally fresh with a recent scatterometer pass
confirming strong gap winds near the Canary Islands. Seas are 6-8
ft in the region.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge north of the
area will change little through early next week. Gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds and slight to moderate seas will
remain over most of the area through early next week. An upper-
level disturbance will track from E to W across the northern
waters through the weekend attendant by scattered showers and
thunderstorms that are expected to affect those waters. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in
the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons
and overnight hours through Tue night.

$$
Flynn
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