[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Aug 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W/22W
from 06N to 22N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm either side
of the wave axis from 08N to 13N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 04N
to 21N, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
concentrated along where the wave intersects the monsoon trough,
from 07N-09N between 36W-40W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56/57W south
19N to inland Suriname near 04N. It is moving westward at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 07N
to 12N between 54W-61W. This convection is being enhanced by
upper-level diffluence in the area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through northern Mauritania
near 20N16W to 08N39W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 08N48W to
08N55W. Aside from convection mentioned above, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-13N between the coast
of Africa and 18W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm
of the ITCZ between 44W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level trough located over the central Gulf of Mexico is
inducing scattered moderate thunderstorms over the central Gulf,
inside a box with vertices 24N84W 23N91W 30N94W 31N87W 24N84W.
This mid-level trough will move westward, spreading thunderstorms
over the northwest Gulf on Fri and into Texas Saturday, while
weakening. At the surface, weak ridging continues over the basin,
leading to mainly gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas. The exception is
the far western portion of the basin, where the latest buoy
observations are reporting moderate S winds with seas 3-5 ft.

The weak ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas into early
next week. Fresh NE to E winds will briefly pulse during the
evening hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and again Fri
night due to a diurnal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low near the western tip of Cuba is inducing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the far
northwest Caribbean Sea, including near the southern coast of
western Cuba. Convergent trades are producing similar conditions
over the southeastern basin near the ABC Islands, where a nearby
upper-level trough is further enhancing this activity. The eastern
end of the east Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered
moderate convection over the southwest Caribbean waters south of
15N and west of 77.5W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
also noted south of Hispaniola, likely triggered by upper-level
diffluence in the area. Mainly fresh trade winds are occurring
over the eastern and central Caribbean, shown in recent ASCAT
satellite data. Seas are 5-6 ft in this area, except 6-8 ft off
the coast of Colombia. Moderate E winds are found in the northwest
basin, where seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected over
the south-central Caribbean mainly at night through Mon night.
Winds will remain fresh over the eastern Caribbean through Sun.
Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the
northwestern Caribbean into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A potent upper-level low is centered in the vicinity of 27N65W. A
surface trough is located just to the northwest of the upper-low
center, oriented from 31N68W to 26N71W. Scattered moderate
thunderstorms are occurring within 210 nm either side of the
surface trough axis and to the northeast of the central Bahamas,
to include portions of the area from 23.5N-31N between 64W-75.5W.

The subtropical ridge is north of area, along 34N. Mainly moderate
E-SE winds prevail west of 70W and north of the Bahamas with 3-4
ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail to the north of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, where seas are 4-6 ft. Gentle winds
prevail north of a line from 24N70W to 28N50W to 31N30W, where
seas are 3-4 ft. Moderate to fresh NE trades and 4-7 ft seas are
occurring from that line southward to the ITCZ/monsoon trough.
Fresh to locally strong north to northeast winds prevail near the
Canary Islands to the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will persist just north of
the area. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and slight
to moderate seas will remain over most of the area through early
next week. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during
the late afternoons and overnight hours through late Mon.

$$
Hagen
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