[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302307
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy rain over the NE Caribbean Sea and Hispaniola: A surface
trough extends from near 23N58W to across the northern Leeward
Islands and to the eastern Caribbean near 15N66W. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is covering the area
from 15N to 22N between 54W and 70W, including the northern
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Guadeloupe
reported 12.2 inches of rain over the 24 hour period ending
Saturday morning at 1200 UTC. The trough will move northwestward
toward the north-central Caribbean by early next week. The
combination of this trough with favorable upper-level winds will
continue to enhance the risk of heavy rainfall over portions of
the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Sun morning. For Hispaniola, the heavy rain threat ramps
up tonight and continues through Monday morning. The rains may
produce flash flooding and mudslides across portions of these
islands, particularly in mountainous terrain. Please consult
products issued by your local or national meteorological service
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 00N32W to the coast
of Brazil near 01S46W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is
noted within 300 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb
high centered over the western Atlantic. Moderate SE winds
prevail across most of the Gulf waters, with fresh E winds near
the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in the 2-4 ft
range. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are located over
portions of the NE Gulf, north of 25N and east of 88.5W. Scattered
to numerous tstorms are inland over the western half of the
Florida Peninsula.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days producing a moderate to fresh anticyclonic
flow. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through Wed night. Fresh to
strong southerly return flow will briefly set-up across the NW and
W central Gulf by Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain now through Sun night for the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras with mainly moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the
5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere.
Aside from the convection mentioned above in the special features
section, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted in the SW Caribbean, south of 13N and west of 75W, in
association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Numerous
moderate scattered strong convection is noted inland over portions
of NW Venezuela, northern Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen over SW
Honduras. Weaker/more isolated tstorms from afternoon heating are
seen over Cuba, Guatemala and SE Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea
will support fresh to strong winds over parts of the east and
central Caribbean during the next several days. Fresh to strong
winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean, near the
coast of Colombia beginning on Mon. A surface trough located over
the NE Caribbean will drift northwestward, reaching Hispaniola on
Sun, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba likely on
Mon. The combination of this trough with favorable upper-level
winds will continue to enhance heavy rainfall in association with
the trough.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N51W to
26N58W to 25N66W, where it transitions to a stationary front that
continues W to the NW Bahamas near 26N78W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are seen along the boundary from 25N-28N between
70W-80W. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail within 180 nm north of
the stationary front. Lighter winds are farther north, closer to a
1022 mb high pressure centered near 32N73W. Seas are in the 7-9
ft range north of 28N between 51W-68W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere north
of the front. A surface trough extends from 23N58W to across the
northern Leeward Islands and to the eastern Caribbean near
15N65W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails
from 17N-23N between 52W-66W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere north of 20N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 20N.
Seas are in the 4-7 ft range elsewhere north of 20N, and 6-9 ft
south of 20N. High pressure ridging prevails over the east
Atlantic, east of 45W, anchored by 1026 mb high pressure centered
near the Azores.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from
28N55W to 25N66W will slide southeastward across the forecast
waters on Sun becoming stationary E of 65W on Mon. The stationary
part of the front will continue to weaken while drifting northward
through Sun. At the same time, a surface trough currently located
over the NE Caribbean will drift northwestward, reaching
Hispaniola and the Atlantic regional waters on Sun, and the Turks
and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba likely on Mon. The combination
of this trough enhanced by favorable upper-level winds will
continue to produce periods of heavy rainfall in association with
the trough.

For the forecast east of 55W, strong to near gale force N to NE
winds will develop offshore of Morocco and Western Sahara, and in
between the Canary Islands, from Sun night through Mon night.

$$
Hagen
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