[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301642
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from
near 22N58W to across the Leeward Islands and to the eastern
Caribbean near 16N65W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted north of 14N and east of 69W, currently
affecting the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The trough will
move northwestward over the eastern and central Caribbean into
early next week. The combination of this trough with enhanced
favorable upper-level dynamics is likely to result in periods of
heavy rainfall over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
and the Dominican Republic through Sun night. The rains may
produce localized flooding across portions of these islands,
particularly in mountainous terrain. Please consult products
issued by your local or national meteorological service for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N12W
to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N28W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 00N to 06N between 08W and 20W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W and
47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb
high centered over the western Atlantic. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days producing a moderate to fresh anticyclonic
flow. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through Wed night. Fresh to
strong southerly return flow will briefly set-up across the NW and
W central Gulf by Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range
over the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Aside from the
convection mentioned above in the special features section,
scattered strong convection is noted in the far SW Caribbean,
south of 12N and west of 78W.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea will
support fresh to strong winds over parts of the east and central
Caribbean during the next several days. Fresh to strong winds are
expected over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of
Colombia beginning on Mon. A surface trough located over the NE
Caribbean will drift northwestward this weekend and into early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N52W to
25N65W where it transitions to a stationary front to the NW
Bahamas. Scattered showers are along the boundary. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail north of the front. Seas are in the 7-9 ft
range north of the front and east of 65W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere
north of the front. A surface trough extends from 22N58W to
across the Leeward Islands and to the eastern Caribbean near
16N65W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
associated to the trough is covering the waters from 17N to 21N
between 55W and 67W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere
north of 20N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 20N. Seas are
in the 4-7 ft range elsewhere north of 20N, and 6-8 ft south of
20N.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will slide
southeastward across the forecast waters. The stationary part of
the front will continue to weaken while drifting northward through
Sun.

$$
AL
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