[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front from 31N39W to 20N55W
to 18N60W to 22N72W has gale-force southerly winds ahead of it
north of 27N early this morning, with fresh to near gale-force
winds elsewhere north of 23N and east of 60W. Seas of 8 ft or
greater also cover the waters within 31N33W to 20N48W to 18N64W to
23N71W to 31N71W, peaking around 16 to 17 ft near 31N40W and
31N54W. The southerly gale-force winds are forecast to lift north
of 31N in the next few hours while the fresh to near gale-force
winds and large seas persist through the end of the week. Please
refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W
to 00N35W to the northern coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to
05N between 09W and 19W, and from 01S to 04S between 30W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from near Apalachee Bay Florida to
28N87W where it transitions to a dissipating stationary front
which continues to near Brownsville, Texas. Limited convection is
currently present with the boundary, although it may increase
during the daytime hours later today. Fresh to strong N-NE winds
were previously blowing west of the Yucatan Peninsula as well as
offshore of Veracruz, Mexico, although they have diminished to
fresh in the past few hours. Mainly gentle to moderate winds cover
the remainder of the basin, locally fresh in the coastal waters
behind the front. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the western Gulf and 2 to
4 ft in the eastern Gulf. Haze is noted in the Bay of Campeche and
SW Gulf, although reductions in visibilities are not as much as
previous evenings.

For the forecast, the cold front portion will dig a bit more
southward this morning, then stall across the central Gulf into
this afternoon while completely dissipating. High pressure will
return for the end of the week into the weekend. Winds will pulse
to fresh and strong offshore north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula Sun evening. Hazy conditions remain possible over the SW
Gulf and Bay of Campeche today due to smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean Sea,
primarily south of 15N and west of 76W. Deep convection is also
across much of northern into central Venezuela, and portions of
Colombia. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are blowing across the
approach and through the Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba,
south of Hispaniola, and in the south-central Caribbean offshore
of northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere,
except gentle in the far SW Caribbean outside of any deep
convection. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean, locally
7 ft near the coast of Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean
Sea will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
across the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola, mainly at
night, during the next several days. Similar conditions will occur
this morning and again tonight near the northern coast of
Colombia and in the lee of eastern Cuba. Otherwise, moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except gentle winds in
the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected
in the SW Caribbean today. Northerly swell will move into Atlantic
waters and through Caribbean passages through the end of the
week. A surge of wind will accompany a trough that will move
through the eastern to central Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warning currently in effect for the central Atlantic.

High pressure of 1019 mb centered near 30N74W dominates the
western Atlantic. Light the gentle anticyclonic winds are near the
high, with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere west of 60W,
except fresh to strong near the Windward Passage. A cold front is
approaching the U.S. east coast, bringing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to the coastal waters. Seas of 4 to 7 ft
are between 71W and 77W, and 3 to 5 ft west of 77W. In the
eastern Atlantic, a ridge extends through 31N22W to 20N35W to
15N53W. Gentle to moderate winds are immediately under the ridge.
Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except
fresh to strong from 10N to 22N between the coast of Africa and
the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the open waters
away from the higher winds and seas associated with the cold front
discussed in the Special Features section.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move offshore of
N Florida later this morning, slowly sagging south while weakening
through the end of the week. An old cold front currently from
20N55W to 19N61W to 21N70W will continue southeastward while
weakening. Associated fresh to strong winds north of 27N and east
of 60W will diminish today, while seas of 8 ft or greater in NE
swell east of 70W gradually subside through the end of the week.
The remnants of the front in the form of a NE to SW trough may
move into the waters south of 22N and east of 70W this weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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