[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Apr 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N31W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from the equator north to the monsoon trough between
10W and 16W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator
north to 07N between 47W and 53W, enhanced by upper level
divergence.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging associated with 1030 mb high pressure centered in Georgia
continues over the Gulf of Mexico and SW Atlantic. The sole
surface feature this afternoon is a weak surface trough that
extends from near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico into the Bay of Campeche.
Moderate to fresh E to SE flow prevails over the Gulf of Mexico,
according to the latest surface observations and scatterometer
data. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft, locally 7 ft on approach to and
within the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are currently
impacting the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. Smoke and haze
mainly due to agricultural fires may reduce visibilities within
the Bay of Campeche and along the coast of Mexico between Veracruz
and Tampico.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from north of the
region will support fresh to strong E-NE winds over the eastern
and south-central Gulf through Sat night, including the Straits of
Florida and areas near the north and west coasts of the Yucatan
Peninsula. The strongest winds should return again tonight.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail elsewhere. Hazy
conditions are possible over the western and central Gulf due to
smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Colombian/Panamanian Low is analyzed in the SW Caribbean at
10N81W. A small segment of the East Pacific Trough extends from
the low to the coast near the border of Panama and Costa Rica.
Scattered showers are noted across the SW Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate trades prevail across the basin south of 17N, with
moderate to locally fresh trades north of 17N. Seas are 4-7 ft in
the NW Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong high pressure located north of the
region will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across
the NW Caribbean, with pulses of primarily strong NE to E winds
south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage during the evening hours
through early this weekend. Afterward, high pressure over the SE
U.S. should sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds Sun through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A shear line extends from 27N68W to the central Bahamas. Fresh NE
winds are located north of the shear line with gentle to moderate
NE winds south of the shear line, according to recent surface
observations and scatterometer data. Seas are 7-9 ft north of the
shear line to 27N. A weak surface trough extends from 30N66W to
27N65W in an area of light winds. Further east, a 1015 mb low
pressure is centered at 24N45W, with moderate cyclonic winds in
the NW quadrant and light to gentle winds around the remainder of
the cyclone. A surface trough extends from 25N33W to 15N41W.
Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection is evident near
northern sections of the trough, within an area from 24N to 29N
between 27W and 36W. An upper level low is currently supporting
this precipitation. Strong NE to E winds are currently impact the
Straits of Florida and the waters between the Bahamas and the
South Florida coast. Fresh to strong NE winds are also found in
the central Atlantic from 29N to 31N between 39W and 46W, and
within 240 nm of the coast of Mauritania. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate NE to E winds prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft W of 55W. In the
central tropical Atlantic northwest of a line from 23N49W to
28N40W to the coast of Morocco near 31N10W, seas are 8-10 ft in
NE to N swell. Elsewhere in open waters, seas are 5-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure of 1030 mb located
over the Mid- Atlantic States will sustain fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas to the west of a line from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas through early this weekend, including the Straits
of Florida. Winds and seas will diminish this Sun into early next
week. A cold front is expected to enter the NE waters between 55W
and 65W on Sun, and extend from 27N55W to 31N66W by early Mon.
Strong to near gale force NW winds are likely to the north of the
front, along with building seas to the east of 65W.

$$
Mahoney
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