[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Apr 21 12:00:22 CDT 2022


AXNT20 KNHC 211700
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning off Morocco: Gale force N winds continue
within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco due to the pressure
gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure over North
Africa. The gale-force wind conditions are forecast to continue
until 18Z today. It is possible for the wave heights to be
ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet in the areas of the strongest
wind speeds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo- France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to
03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N
between 25W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida
to 23N87W. The front is forecast to dissipate later this
afternoon. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm either side
of a front mainly S of 25N and E of 87W. Moderate to fresh ESE
winds prevail across the basin. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail over the
basin, except up to 8 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, strong ridge north of the area will produce
pulsing fresh to strong E winds over the eastern and south-central
Gulf tonight through Sat night, including the Straits of Florida
and areas near the north and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula.
The strongest winds should occur this evening and again Fri
evening. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail elsewhere.
Hazy conditions are possible over the SW Gulf due to smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level trough extends from the NW Bahamas to
Jamaica. Scattered showers prevail on the eastern side of the
trough affecting the windward Passage. A surface trough is
analyzed from 18N74W to 21N73W. Another surface trough is analyzed
over the SW Caribbean from 16N79W to 12N80W. Moderate to fresh NE
winds prevail across the northern half of the basin, while gentle
to moderate easterly winds prevail over the southern half. Seas
are 5-7 ft in the NW Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the E Caribbean, 3-5 ft
over the central basin and 2-4 ft in the SW basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient in the area should
maintain fresh ENE winds across the NW Caribbean, with pulses of
strong ENE winds south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage during
the evening hours today through early this weekend. Afterward,
high pressure building over the SE U.S. should sustain moderate to
fresh easterly winds Sun through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect in the far E Atlantic near the coast
of Morocco. Please see the Special Features section above for more
details.

A stationary front is along 31N63W through the NW Bahamas to the
Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Fresh to strong NE-ENE winds
prevail over much of the area NW of the front, including over the
northern Bahamas. Fresh winds are occurring to the SE of the
front over the SE Bahamas. Seas of 8-10 ft prevail east of the
Bahamas, with seas to 7 ft just off the coast of Florida. A
surface trough is analyzed from 24N70W to 19N74W. Scattered
showers are noted in the vicinity of the front and trough mainly
between 61W-72W. Farther E, a 1014 mb low pressure is near
29N42W. A surface trough extends from the low to 25N34W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-30N between 37W-44W.
Strong NE to E winds are in the northern semicircle, north of
29N between 35W-44W. Seas in the area are ranging between 8 to 12
ft. Seas are generally 6-7 ft elsewhere across the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front is expected to retreat
slightly NW today before dissipating on Fri. The pressure gradient
between this feature and a strong ridge north of the area will
sustain fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to the west of a
line from Bermuda to the central Bahamas through Fri evening,
including the Straits of Florida. Winds and seas should gradually
diminish this weekend. A cold front is expected to enter the NE
waters between 55W-65W on Sun, and extend from 27N55W to 31N66W by
early Mon. Strong to near gale force NW winds are likely to the
north of the front, along with building seas to the east of 65W.


$$
ERA
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