[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale-Force Wind Warning off Morocco: Gale force N winds continue
within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco due to the pressure
gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure over North
Africa. The gale-force wind conditions are forecast to continue
until 18Z today. It is possible for the wave heights to be
ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet in the areas of the fastest wind
speeds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to
01N34W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted south of 06N between 24W and the coast of South America.
Similar convection is south of 06N between 00W and 08W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida W to
23N86W. The front is forecast to dissipate by this afternoon.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted within 90 nm
either side of a line extending from the W end of the stationary
front to Brownsville, TX. Fresh to locally strong E-ESE winds are
in the eastern Gulf. Moderate ESE-SE winds prevail over the
western Gulf. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail over the basin, except up to
8 ft in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
Coast will produce pulsing fresh to strong E winds over the
eastern and south-central Gulf through Sat afternoon, including
the Straits of Florida and areas near the north and west coasts of
the Yucatan Peninsula. The strongest winds should occur this
evening and again Fri evening. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds
will prevail elsewhere. Hazy conditions are possible over the SW
Gulf due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level trough extends from the NW Bahamas to
Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms prevail over
portions of the central and west-central Caribbean from 14N-19N
between 68W-84W. Fresh to locally strong ENE winds are occurring
in the NW Caribbean north of 19N and south of Cuba. Moderate to
fresh trades are in the E Caribbean, while gentle to moderate
winds extend over portions of the SW and central basin. Seas are
5-7 ft in the NW Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the E Caribbean, 3-5 ft
over the central basin and 2-4 ft in the SW basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area should maintain
fresh ENE winds across the NW Caribbean, with pulses of strong
ENE winds south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage during the
evening hours this evening through Fri evening. Afterward, high
pressure building over the SE U.S. should sustain moderate to
fresh easterly winds through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect in the far E Atlantic near the coast
of Morocco. Please see the Special Features section above.

A stationary front is along 31N63W through the NW Bahamas to the
Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Fresh to strong NE-ENE winds
prevail over much of the area NW of the front, including over the
Bahamas. Similar winds are occurring to the SE of the front over
the SE Bahamas. Seas of 8-10 ft prevail east of the Bahamas, with
seas to 7 ft just off the coast of Florida. Two pre-frontal
troughs are noted to the east of the front. An upper-level trough
and the surface troughs are enhancing scattered showers and
isolated tstorms inside a box with corners 21N77W to 31N65W to
31N54W to 19N68W to 21N77W. Somewhat lower winds and seas are
occurring near and within a few hundred nm east of the surface
trough that extends from 31N62W to from 25N66W. Farther E, a 1014
mb low pressure is near 27N38.5W. Scattered moderate convection is
west of the low from 26N-31N between 38W-44W. Strong NE to E winds
are in the northern semicircle, north of 29.5N between 35W-44W.
Seas in the area are 9 to 11 ft. Seas are generally 6-7 ft
elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, the west Atlantic stationary front is expected
to retreat slightly NW today before dissipating on Fri. This
feature coupled with strong high pressure over the U.S. Mid-
Atlantic coast will sustain fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas to the west of a line from Bermuda to the central Bahamas
through Fri evening, including the Straits of Florida. Winds and
seas should gradually diminish this weekend. The low pressure near
27N38.5W will continue producing strong winds through tonight
before gradually weakening Fri into Sat. Looking ahead, a cold
front is expected to move south of 31N on Sun, and extend from
31N45W to 27N55W to 31N66W by early Mon. Strong to near gale force
NW winds are likely to the north of the front, along with
building seas.

$$
Hagen
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