[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Apr 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A very tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1035 mb centered north of the Azores and
lower pressures over western Africa will allow for gale-force
north winds to develop along and near the coast of Morocco later
today, with seas building to 12-15 ft. These conditions are
forecast to continue into Wed. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of the Guinea/Guinea-Bissau border near 11N15W, and extends
south-southwest to 04N18W and to 03N22W. The ITCZ extends from
03N22W to 02N36W to 01S42W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is from 00N-05N between 14W-23W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-04N between 29W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Ft. Myers, FL to 25N86W
to 25N91W, then stationary to 25N93W. Strong NE winds are
occurring north of the front east of 91W. Fresh NE winds are
elsewhere north of the front. Seas with these winds are currently
reaching 8 ft. NOAA buoy 42039 located near 28.8N 86.0W recorded
winds 27 kt gusting to 33 kt and seas of 8 ft at 0900 UTC.
Isolated thunderstorms have recently developed along the front
between 85.5W-88.5W. Elsewhere over the Gulf to the south of the
front, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas 3-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, winds north of the front will diminish to
moderate to fresh by this afternoon. The front will stall this
evening from the Florida Straits westward to 23N90W. Fresh to
strong E winds are forecast Wed night through Thu night over
portions of the southern and eastern Gulf, including near the
Yucatan Peninsula and Florida Straits.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface trough extends across eastern Cuba to Jamaica.
This feature is supported by broad mid to upper-level troughing
that reaches southward from the western Atlantic to the central
Caribbean. This set-up of these features has perturbed the
weather pattern over most of the central Caribbean waters.
Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms prevail over the
central Caribbean between 75W-82W. Some lighter showers are also
possible farther east, to the south of the Dominican Republic.
Fresh east winds are occurring east of 75W. Generally gentle N to
NE winds are west of 76W, with the exception of fresh NE winds
that have recently entered the NW corner of the Caribbean. Seas
are 6-7 ft east of 75W and 2-5 ft elsewhere.

The heavy rainfall threat has diminished moderately for Hispaniola
and eastern Cuba. However, scattered thunderstorms could still
produce daily rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches over the next
couple of days, with localized flooding possible.

For the forecast, a mid to upper-level trough will continue to
support scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
north-central Caribbean through today. Fresh trades will prevail
over the eastern Caribbean through today. As the trough moves
eastward, winds will diminish to moderate to locally fresh by
tonight in the eastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, a cold front will
approach the Yucatan Channel tonight and stall just N of the basin
through Thu, bringing fresh NE winds across the NW Caribbean
through the remainder of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
the East Atlantic Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from 31N76W to Vero Beach, FL, as of 0900
UTC. Scattered showers and tstorms are near the front. A surface
trough extends from 31N74W to eastern Cuba near 21N74W. A mid- to
upper-level trough is enhancing numerous moderate scattered
strong convection from 22N-26N between 68W-75W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 22N-31N between 62W-76W.
Fresh to strong SE to S winds are east of the surface trough to
65W, where seas are 7-9 ft. Fresh to strong N winds are occurring
NW of the cold front, where seas are up to 7 ft.

In the eastern Atlantic, strong high pressure of 1035 mb is
centered north of the Azores. Its related tight gradient is
producing strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas north of
27N and east of 38W. Seas are 10-15 ft in the area.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE to S winds E of
the surface trough will continue through today, expanding
northward toward 31N this morning as the trough moves eastward. A
mid to upper-level trough will continue to enhance thunderstorm
activity through at least tonight east of the Bahamas and north of
the Greater Antilles. The aforementioned cold front will reach
from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits this evening,
then stall Wed from Bermuda to the Florida Straits. The front
will slowly weaken through the end of the week. Fresh to strong NE
winds and building seas will prevail NW of the front through Thu.

$$
Hagen
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