[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A very tight pressure gradient between
strong high pressure of 1035 mb centered well north of the
Azores and lower pressures over western African will allow for
gale-force north winds to develop along and near the coast of
Morocco Tue morning, with seas building to 12-15 ft. These
conditions are forecast to continue into Tue night. The Outlook
for the 24 hours that follows the forecast that follows the Please
see the latest forecast from Meteo-France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

Heavy Rainfall from Bahamas southward to the Greater Antilles:
A rather sharp mid to upper-level trough stretching from the
Bahamas to the central Caribbean Sea is resulting in pockets of
deep moisture along with clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection mainly near the central and
southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, eastern and
central Cuba, Hispaniola, eastern Jamaica, and the adjacent
Caribbean and Atlantic waters. Enhanced by favorable upper-level
winds, periods of heavy rainfall are anticipated for these
locations through tonight. There is potential for flash flooding
and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Looking ahead, a
robust mid to upper-level trough that has recently pushed offshore
the southeastern U.S. extending southward to eastern Cuba and the
central Caribbean north of about 14N per latest water vapor
imagery will reinvigorate the mid to upper atmospheric dynamics
over the aforementioned areas today through Wed, possibly leading
to an extension of this unsettled weather pattern through late in
the week. Please refer to your local or national meteorological
offices for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Guinea near 11N15W, and extends south-southwest to
05N17W and to 03N22W. The ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 03N30W and
to 00N43W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm
south of the trough between 15W-18W and within 120 nm south
of the trough between 18W-21W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 30W-42W and
within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 42W-43W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-37W and
within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 34W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is quickly making progress across the Gulf. It
extends from a 1012 mb low over southeastern Georgia southwest
to Cross City, Florida and continues to 26N89W and to 26N93W,
where it becomes stationary to inland Texas near Brownsville.
A recent ASCAT data pass indicated fresh north to northeast winds
behind the front to near 26N. Fresh to strong north to northeast
winds are in the NE Gulf and in the central Gulf north of 26N.
Seas with these winds are in the 4-6 ft range. Elsewhere north
of the front, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are
present along with seas of 3-5 ft. South of the front, the latest
ASCAT data passes show gentle to moderate northeast to east winds
west of 90W, and moderate to fresh north to northeast winds east
of 90W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 3-4 ft.

For the forecast, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh by Tue
as the front stalls across the southern Gulf. Fresh northeast to
east winds will pulse during the overnight hours along the
northwest Yucatan Peninsula waters associated with a diurnal
trough. Fresh to strong east winds are forecast late Wed into Fri
near the Yucatan Peninsula, Florida Straits and eastern Gulf of
Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and
Hispaniola.

A broad surface trough extends across central Cuba to the
northern Caribbean Sea. This feature is supported by broad
mid to upper-level troughing that reaches southward from the
western Atlantic to the central Caribbean. At the surface,
a trough is analyzed from near the western tip of Jamaica,
north-northeast to across east-central Cuba and to the NW
Bahamas. This set-up of these features has perturbed the
weather pattern over most of the central Caribbean waters.
In addition, the low pressure that is typically over northwestern
Colombia has pulled northward out over the southwestern Caribbean
waters near 13N78W. It has a pressure of 1009 mb. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are noted from 14N to 18N between
74W-78W, and also east of there from 14N to 18N between 68W-71W.
This activity is gradually shifting eastward. Latest ASCAT data
passes reveal fresh east winds east of 76W, and generally gentle
to moderate northeast to east winds west of 76W, with the
exception of light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the low
pressure near 13N78W. Latest altimeter data passes note seas of
4-7 ft east of 76W and 3-5 ft west of 76W, except for lower seas
of 2-4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Cuba to 29N and 4-6
ft seas in the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, a mid to upper-level trough, in combination
with the trough near Jamaica, will continue to enhance showers
and thunderstorms across portions of the north-central Caribbean
today. Fresh trade winds will prevail over the eastern Caribbean
through this morning. As the trough moves eastward, winds will
diminish to moderate to locally fresh today in the eastern
Caribbean. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the Yucatan
Channel by tonight and stall through Thu, bringing moderate to
fresh northeast winds across the northwest part of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
the East Atlantic Gale Warning, and on the heavy rainfall event
impacting the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos
Islands.

Satellite imagery depicts very active weather over the majority
of the western part of the discussion area. This weather is in the
form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that are
occurring near and to the north and east of the Bahamas and Turks
and Caicos Islands, reaching to near 65W. A surface trough is
along 77W south of 28N. Latest altimeter data passes indicate
that seas are in the 6-8 ft range to the east and northeast of the
Bahamas, where fresh southeast to south winds are noted in recent
ASCAT data passes. A high pressure ridge extends across the
northern waters roughly along 30N and west of 55W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from near 31N78W to the east-central Florida coast
near Daytona Beach. Winds near and west of the Bahamas are
generally light and variable, with seas of 3-5 ft in an east
swell. Winds north and northwest of the Bahamas are moderate in
speeds and west to northwest in direction behind the trough and
southwest to west and gentle in speeds between the trough and the
Bahamas. Seas there are 5-7 ft in an east swell. In the eastern
Atlantic, strong high pressure of 1035 mb is centered well north
of the Azores. Its related tight gradient is producing strong to
near gale-force winds and rough seas north of 25N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough that extends from
the NW Bahamas to the Cayman Islands will begin moving eastward
tonight and extend from 31N72W through the central Bahamas to
eastern Cuba this morning. Fresh to strong southeast to south
winds will continue east of this trough through tonight, while
expanding northward toward 31N. A mid to upper-level trough is
expected to enhance thunderstorm activity through Wed east of the
Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles. A cold front will move
off the northeast Florida coast tonight and extend from 31N74W to
South Florida this morning, and from 31N67W to the central
Bahamas to central Cuba by Wed morning, where the front will stall
and slowly weaken through the end of the week. Fresh to strong
northeast winds and building seas will prevail NW of the front Tue
night through Thu.

$$
Aguirre
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