[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182305
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force N winds are expected to
develop near the coast of Morocco on Tuesday, with seas building
to greater than 12 ft. Please see the latest forecast from Meteo-
France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

Heavy Rainfall from Bahamas southward to the Greater Antilles: A
mid to upper-level trough stretching from the Bahamas to the
central Caribbean Sea is resulting in scattered heavy showers and
strong thunderstorms near portions of the SE Bahamas, Turks and
Caicos Islands, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, eastern Jamaica, and the
adjacent Caribbean and Atlantic waters. Enhanced by favorable
upper-level winds, periods of heavy rainfall are anticipated for
these locations through Tue. There is potential for flash flooding
and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Looking ahead, a
robust mid-latitude trough digging southeastward from offshore the
SE U.S. toward the Caribbean Sea will reinforce the mid-level
trough and upper-level diffluence over this area during midweek.
As a result, this rainy pattern could persist through Thu.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and extends to 05N16W to 03N27W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N27W to 02N38W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate with
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 12W
and 20W. Isolated weak convection is noted from 00N to 04N between
32W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Earlier this afternoon, a cold front extended from the Florida
Panhandle to 27N92W, then continued as a stationary front to the
southern Texas coast. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and
building seas have developed over the northern Gulf in association
with the frontal passage. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
prevail across the rest of the basin under the influence of weak
high pressure.

For the forecast, strong northerly winds will develop in the NE
Gulf by tonight as the front pushes southward across the eastern
basin. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh by Tue as the
front stalls across the southern Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds will
pulse tonight along the NW Yucatan Peninsula waters associated
with a diurnal trough. Meanwhile, patchy areas of smoke may reduce
visibility across portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico, south
of 25N and west of 93W. Fresh to strong E winds are forecast late
Wed into Fri near the Yucatan Peninsula, Florida Straits, and
southeast Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on the
potential for heavy rainfall over E Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola.

A broad surface trough extends across central Cuba to the
northern Caribbean Sea. This feature is supported by a mid-level
low that is causing some scattered thunderstorms in the central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted across the
eastern Caribbean, with 6-8 ft seas. A weak low pressure center
remains over the Colombian Basin, where winds are light to gentle
and seas are generally 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, a mid to upper-level trough will continue to
enhance heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
north-central Caribbean through Tue. Fresh to locally strong
trades over the eastern Caribbean will prevail through tonight.
As the trough moves eastward over the next couple of days, winds
will diminish to moderate to locally fresh by Tue in the eastern
Caribbean. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach of the Yucatan
Channel by Tue night and stall through Thu, bringing moderate to
fresh NE winds across the NW basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
the East Atlantic Gale Warning and the heavy rainfall event
affecting the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Recent satellite and lightning data indicate scattered showers
and thunderstorms continue near and to the north and east of the
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands this evening. Altimeter data
indicate seas are 7-8 ft in this region. A high pressure ridge
extends across the northern waters, and a broad area of fresh SE
winds was noted in earlier scatterometer data north of the
Greater Antilles and east of 72W. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1036
mb high pressure centered north of the Azores is producing a
tight pressure gradient and generating strong to near gale-force
winds and rough seas north of 25N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough that extends from
the NW Bahamas to the Cayman Islands will begin moving eastward
tonight and extend from 31N72W through the central Bahamas to
eastern Cuba by Tue morning. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will
continue E of this trough through Tue night, expanding northward
toward 31N tonight and into Tue. A mid to upper-level trough is
expected to enhance thunderstorm activity through mid-week east
of the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles. A cold front
will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight and extend from
31N74W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N67W to the
central Bahamas to central Cuba by Wed morning. The front will
stall by Wed and slowly weaken through the end of the week. Fresh
to strong NE winds and building seas will prevail NW of the front
Tue night through Thu morning.

$$
B Reinhart
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