[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall from SE Bahamas southward to the Greater
Antilles: A quasi-stationary mid-level low between E Cuba and
the SE Bahamas coupled together with a moist trade-wind flow is
triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near
the SE Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and over E Cuba,
Hispaniola, and adjacent Caribbean waters. Enhanced by favorable
upper-level winds, periods of heavy rainfall are anticipated for
these locations through Tue. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with
locally 4 to 6 inches are possible. This amount of rainfall has
the potential to cause flash flooding and mudslides. Looking
further ahead, a robust mid-latitude trough digging
southeastward from offshore the SE U.S. toward the Caribbean Sea
will reinforce the mid-level trough and upper-level diffluence
over this area during midweek. As a result, this rainy pattern
could persist through Thu.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and extends to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N20W to 01N 35W. Very little significant convection is
noted at this time, although isolated showers and thunderstorms
may exist within 60 nm north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge extends from the Atlantic across N Florida to the
NW Gulf. This feature is maintaining light to gentle winds and
seas of 2 to 3 ft over the NE and E central Gulf. Broad surface
troughing over Cuba as well as the Yucatan Peninsula is allowing
for a slight increase in winds to fresh over the Florida Straits
and the eastern Bay of Campeche noted in recent scatterometer
data. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist through early
this morning. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse during the evening
and along the NW Yucatan Peninsula waters through tonight
associated with a diurnal trough. A cold front will move into
the N Gulf early today, then stall across the S Gulf late Tue
through Wed. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building
seas will follow the front. Meanwhile, patchy areas of smoke
produced by agricultural fires may reduce visibility across
portions of the Mexican offshore waters W of 95W and off S
Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on the
potential for heavy rainfall over E Cuba and Hispaniola.
Additionally, aided by the aforementioned mid-level low in the
special features section, convergent trade winds are triggering
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the
central Caribbean between 70W and 77W. A recent scatterometer
pass observed fresh to strong winds with the areas of convection.

Elsewhere, the gradient between high pressure over the
subtropical Atlantic and a 1007 mb low over N Colombia continues
to support fresh trade winds over most of the basin, with
locally strong winds over the Leeward Antilles and offshore NE
Colombia. Seas range from 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate flow is
noted within the NW basin north of 18N, the Windward Passage and
SW basin south of 13N, and west of 74W, where seas are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will maintain fresh
trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, while the
western basin will see gentle to moderate winds. A cold front
will reach the Yucatan Channel by early Wed, then remain
stationary through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on the
heavy rainfall event affecting the SE Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands.

A ridge extends across the western subtropical Atlantic
producing moderate easterlies from 25N to 29N between 50W and
the east coast of Florida, with 3 to 5 ft seas. North of 29N,
moderate southerly winds are noted. A recent scatterometer pass
found mainly fresh easterly winds south of 25N to the Caribbean
Islands between 45W and the SE Bahamas, where seas are 6 to 9
ft. Moderate to fresh easterlies are also noted west of 40W to
the Lesser Antilles where seas are 6 to 8 ft.

A weakening 1018 mb low pressure center is near 27N37W. Fresh to
strong NE winds are north of 27N between 30W and 45W. Seas north
of the low in the area of these winds are 9 to 12 ft in
northerly swell. A dissipating cold front that was associated
with the low extends SW from 27N33W to 21N39W and west to 44W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are north of the front along with 8
to 10 ft seas. To the E, fresh to locally strong NE winds and 7
to 10 ft seas exist near the Canary Islands, N of 27N between
the Sahara/Moroccan coast and 30W.  Elsewhere in the Atlantic,
gentle to moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh E to SE trade winds
south of 24N and E of the Bahamas will veer to SE early today as
a trough forms over the Bahamas along 77W. Fresh to strong SE to
S winds will develop E of this today through Tue and expand
northward to 31N, as the axis of the trough drifts eastward. A
cold front forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast
tonight will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to
central Cuba by early Wed. The front will then stall and begin
to drift W Thu while weakening. Fresh to strong NE winds and
building seas will prevail NW of the front.

$$

Mora
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